Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x159b9cf1fd2a116de3d18f47ed6137eebcfb88a17ae58838b7afd9d998ba136b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 2,604$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,272$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacd4…888cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,139$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8e…31c0backed Yes | 21c | 809.58$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 7c | 748.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 19c | 564.3$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.92 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 368.83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 325.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 271.32$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 27c | 212.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 189.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 181.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 171.89$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed8c…d055backed Yes | 19c | 151.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f2…09babacked No | 79c | 137.84$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847f…e75ebacked Yes | 22c | 127.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 19c | 118.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 17c | 105.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 25c | 103.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa03a…e64ebacked Yes | 16c | 96.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…1f3bbacked Yes | 21c | 95.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4e…d9e1backed Yes | 21c | 93.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…379bbacked Yes | 22c | 81.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78eb…5134backed Yes | 18c | 80.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 79c | 77.59$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…6049backed Yes | 16c | 74.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 23c | 73.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…665fbacked Yes | 28c | 72.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 71.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 61.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc437…0f42backed Yes | 32c | 59.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 75c | 53.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8b…4eb1backed Yes | 26c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 72c | 39.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed No | 75c | 26.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 25.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1417…38afbacked No | 79c | 20.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed No | 78c | 18.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb497…8fb0backed No | 79c | 16.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9231…b267backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…a8f1backed No | 79c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 31 | 80.6%25 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 78cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or higher on February 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.