Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63dfeed3f09049e722d8c578769b9e19060da57c174c79d6f74b22c408262879
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 3,652$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 2c | 1,858$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 10c | 875.95$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.83 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 4c | 577.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 11c | 351.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…29bfbacked No | 9c | 339.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 22c | 333.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.33 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 174.75$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 150.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.44 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7b…265dbacked No | 23c | 129.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 24c | 128.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b75…ed49backed Yes | 49c | 108.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 30c | 103.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 51c | 87.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 84.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed Yes | 36c | 83.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 37c | 82.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 30c | 79.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 40c | 74.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…3f18backed Yes | 71c | 69.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…379bbacked Yes | 36c | 69.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 32c | 62.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 56.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 33c | 51.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 35c | 43.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…dcebbacked Yes | 41c | 42.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 27c | 39.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…1241backed No | 35c | 39.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x751d…9f55backed Yes | 39c | 38.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 76c | 38.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae6…bd5fbacked Yes | 36c | 38.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6e…929dbacked Yes | 37c | 35.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…2c08backed Yes | 55c | 32.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 39c | 31.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…ecdcbacked Yes | 75c | 30.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked No | 62c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 27.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 26.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 44c | 25.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 45c | 23.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 77c | 18.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…9811backed Yes | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 76cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfca…8d8abacked No | 58c | 17.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61a7…4743backed No | 61c | 17.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -5.8wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -45%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 72c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or higher on February 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.