AI · resolved market
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe0698bbc1538bec6602efcfb493010f4eef481f09813352b7f26e241d5c1508
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked No | 15c | 1,328$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.03 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 43c | 971.21$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.47 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked No | 47c | 729.9$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.65 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8651…8a35backed No | 26c | 664.94$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…7be4backed Yes | 62c | 527.45$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked No | 62c | 453.67$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…8c4fbacked Yes | 57c | 349.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 51c | 320.24$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.91 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 32c | 313.21$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.31 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 48c | 310.91$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.46 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e32…8a33backed No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 17c | 298.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb798…7030backed Yes | 47c | 258.31$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 57c | 245.02$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.25 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 59c | 221.35$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.76 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 53c | 220.53$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.88 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 23c | 175.87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.56 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5399…4b4fbacked Yes | 50c | 150.92$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 52c | 145.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6250…8707backed No | 70c | 129.64$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f0…3377backed Yes | 26c | 113.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +271.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 45c | 110$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 41c | 100.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa089…6d33backed Yes | 28c | 100.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255f…c6d4backed Yes | 50c | 99.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 98.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 49c | 94.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 21c | 91.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc6…6b0dbacked Yes | 45c | 66.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 60.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63c8…b057backed Yes | 50c | 60.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +247.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…b25bbacked No | 22c | 59.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 45c | 54.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f844backed Yes | 49c | 53.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa463…fb5abacked Yes | 47c | 52.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…30ccbacked Yes | 33c | 52.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +116%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfef6…b6a9backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e7…51acbacked Yes | 75c | 47.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 31c | 44.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6758…d25ebacked Yes | 44c | 42.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 42.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…2a29backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9574backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…1226backed Yes | 79c | 34.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 60c | 32.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebe…e5ddbacked Yes | 49c | 30.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b6…e4e1backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…cd2dbacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…1812backed No | 48c | 26.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d95…9c87backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d3…1a34backed Yes | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf89…a03ebacked Yes | 70c | 18.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?this page
- Will CapCut: Photo & Video Editor be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?No won
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?No won
- Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.