AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc492b29b941c4a29bd20c9633e7166235f88c3f2b360fffb8c72e2afc12b18bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 5c | 423.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 16c | 390.73$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 7c | 275.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…588ebacked No | 61c | 269.98$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 257.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 8c | 205$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4822…0de4backed Yes | 39c | 170$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0522…02f4backed No | 79c | 169.53$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa31d…0e68backed No | 71c | 143.6$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 31c | 140.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…5ca7backed No | 77c | 135.24$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf54e…b728backed No | 64c | 123.13$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0e…06a5backed No | 74c | 118.92$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 10c | 104.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x403d…2eb1backed No | 64c | 102.14$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…ab7cbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4218…4814backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa089…6d33backed Yes | 40c | 99.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…c686backed Yes | 30c | 93.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 84.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xac3d…660cbacked No | 71c | 70.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6588…6778backed No | 71c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afb…7c14backed Yes | 56c | 55.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fc…e11fbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 68c | 17.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?this page
- Will CapCut: Photo & Video Editor be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?No won
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?No won
- Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?Yes won
- Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.