TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Merrimack College Warriors vs. Marist Red Foxes: O/U 133.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$653,100
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$656,320

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $653,100 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Over53c552,664$291,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291,674.9535945.1%162 W · 197 L-24.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Under47c400,000$188,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212,00021754.8%119 W · 98 L+15.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Under48c121,434$58,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,145.8169142.8%296 W · 395 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under48c49,903$23,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,949.519860.2%59 W · 39 L+9.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+23%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Over52c40,000$20,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,756.54047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Under54c24,167$13,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,167.4612754.3%69 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under47c15,000$7,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,95090645.4%411 W · 495 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Under47c11,111$5,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,888.8313154.2%71 W · 60 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Over52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,199.9910441.3%43 W · 61 L-8.7wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Over51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.954339.5%17 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over45c9,626$4,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,379.735,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over48c7,822$3,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,756.1112,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Under49c3,061$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.2221248.1%102 W · 110 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Under49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,53016954.4%92 W · 77 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Over52c2,743$1,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,425.658246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Under49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.5425556.1%143 W · 112 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Under50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0009856.1%55 W · 43 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+52.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x162f…585abacked Over52c1,996$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.86445.3%29 W · 35 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over46c1,339$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.252,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Under50c1,164$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.2312358.5%72 W · 51 L+10.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed Under49c1,030$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.313851.4%71 W · 67 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over46c976$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.124,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Under51c800$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39255749.2%274 W · 283 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d0f…f3e6backed Under50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40011946.2%55 W · 64 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8289…2b2ebacked Under51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2457058.6%41 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Over50c429.2$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.0997447.9%467 W · 507 L-2.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d48…48e0backed Under48c326.07$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.5618046.7%84 W · 96 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb6…735cbacked Over52c297.36$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.774344.2%19 W · 24 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2db…be15backed Under57c289$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-42%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under50c285.89$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.621,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x664b…00b3backed Under50c208.33$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.1711159.5%66 W · 45 L+10.7wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0850546.9%237 W · 268 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f3e…380cbacked Under49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.083554.3%19 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4301…6fc0backed Under49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.084153.7%22 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf13b…9ef9backed Under49c202.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.7119657.1%112 W · 84 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Under54c199.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926848.5%33 W · 35 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Over43c198$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1434649.1%170 W · 176 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe98d…8fe0backed Under6c196.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.241442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.20per pick22cpaid+94.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed Under51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.085949.2%29 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over46c156$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.133,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x460d…9d5fbacked Under64c155.41$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.023348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Under50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7515156.3%85 W · 66 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3951…c5b2backed Under49c122.12$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.283240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x55ac…9955backed Under14c121$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.065438.9%21 W · 33 L+15.0wins+0.28per pick11cpaid+213.8%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Over47c118.08$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.525946.3%120 W · 139 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed Under49c107.22$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.681471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+41.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x65b3…7fc9backed Under48c100.36$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.1912341.5%51 W · 72 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b46…944cbacked Under50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5018656.5%105 W · 81 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451,48743%639 W · 848 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x983a…ac6bbacked Over47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478245.1%37 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c4e…1c13backed Over52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked Under48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+36.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92bf…0f9bbacked Over52c99.1$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.584146.3%19 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8918…f4e4backed Over52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b2…1950backed Over52c95.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.917450%37 W · 37 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Under52c92$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1619050.5%96 W · 94 L+15.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x646e…294dbacked Under49c81.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.633666.7%24 W · 12 L+5.7wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+32.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Under49c80$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.862753%332 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x865a…901bbacked Under49c76.71$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1212560%75 W · 50 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xda12…38d6backed Over53c67.42$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.682948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed85…bfacbacked Under50c66.12$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.127846.2%36 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x319e…de42backed Under54c64.81$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.812766.7%18 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0157…340fbacked Over52c63.04$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.913246.9%15 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2816…6ad7backed Under48c61.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.059257.6%53 W · 39 L+8.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under62c60.24$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed Under48c51$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5212355.3%68 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ab0…f2d7backed Under50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe7ea…066ebacked Under51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.57957%45 W · 34 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over47c47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.965,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb5a8…8a9dbacked Under50c41.19$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.67251.4%37 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over43c41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.774,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf861…1d14backed Under49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.826755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c9d…3e29backed Under51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2228354.1%153 W · 130 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Under61c37.5$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6332751.7%169 W · 158 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1881…85a2backed Under55c36.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.532245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8155…eb2cbacked Over52c36.62$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.093348.5%16 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08b6…7db6backed Under48c30.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8612245.9%56 W · 66 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6af1…b0f1backed Under49c29.1$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.732055%11 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd730…1948backed Under49c25.45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9819653.1%104 W · 92 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over46c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.589146.2%412 W · 479 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e49…bd4bbacked Under49c24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.242240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over47c24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1617943.6%78 W · 101 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x191e…b6bebacked Under50c23.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.612669.2%18 W · 8 L+4.7wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+36.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x47ba…a503backed Under47c21.28$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2811841.5%49 W · 69 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.