Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdaf41e85e8b220abeddc2a8d8bcd13dc4cc2383958191fe8603cdc2e25b08fca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 3,451$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.72 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,405$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,085$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 1,668$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…379bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,239$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.76 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 585.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 3c | 379.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 11c | 328.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…6b12backed Yes | 12c | 300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8b…4eb1backed Yes | 24c | 294.31$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.43 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 6c | 260$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 5c | 241.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 11c | 237.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 77c | 193.56$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 11c | 180.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 27c | 152$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 21c | 144.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 14c | 131.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 112.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 106.01$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d7…64ccbacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 18c | 89.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 23c | 79.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…2c08backed Yes | 13c | 78.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x686b…5de0backed Yes | 26c | 69.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 73c | 68.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…a680backed No | 72c | 64.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 75c | 58.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 48.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…b55fbacked Yes | 34c | 44.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 43.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe721…a4d4backed Yes | 26c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 22.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed No | 65c | 21.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…6b75backed No | 76c | 20.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 74c | 16.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C or below on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or higher on February 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.