Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa901c12c386c6b859ca70bcc2dd6887cb0638cf483f5472fb7dbd46b49e6b11a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 0c | 5,566$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6e…929dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…3f18backed Yes | 4c | 1,791$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…a932backed Yes | 1c | 1,030$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 11c | 899.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.44 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 68c | 730.78$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.84 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 5c | 659.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed Yes | 12c | 607.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 75c | 485.76$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.05 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 30c | 474.73$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.24 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 48c | 412.95$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.64 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 47c | 412.26$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.03 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 390.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.37 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 20c | 300$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes | 68c | 295.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf85…29edbacked Yes | 35c | 294.13$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…24a6backed Yes | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 37c | 174.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 20c | 169.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 157.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 19c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 140.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed No | 11c | 137.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.62 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 17c | 135.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…4c6dbacked No | 52c | 129.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.76 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 15c | 122.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a11…46a3backed Yes | 17c | 116.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…fac1backed Yes | 77c | 110.78$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.67 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 43c | 110$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.15 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 33c | 95.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 29c | 94.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 79c | 93.38$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 22c | 90.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.63 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 35c | 85.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 68c | 82.76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 20c | 80.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 23c | 79.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 73.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 23c | 69.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 18c | 65.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 64.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe721…a4d4backed Yes | 24c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 71c | 59.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…3a89backed Yes | 25c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed No | 24c | 56.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 22c | 54.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 61c | 52.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 61c | 50.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…dc44backed Yes | 64c | 43.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 24c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4b15…23b7backed No | 79c | 38.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 37c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd4…888cbacked Yes | 33c | 35.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 38c | 35.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 42c | 33.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…d84abacked Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 74c | 27.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c5…8511backed Yes | 54c | 20.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd524…7535backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…9ac6backed Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 62c | 16.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C or below on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or higher on February 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.