Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeff5c1d79f40dc82109ae30c1088d4079a966ed785d050b08a1aa9fac286465b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Yes | 19c | 5,282$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.5 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33a3…6bd4backed Yes | 17c | 4,780$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.2 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…c7aebacked Yes | 23c | 3,127$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.2 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeafb…3179backed No | 78c | 2,715$2,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 29c | 2,077$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506d…6654backed No | 76c | 1,700$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc3…edf0backed Yes | 13c | 1,475$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.28 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,377$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 12c | 690.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa721…b3f0backed Yes | 20c | 454.78$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a10…4253backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25f…0592backed Yes | 13c | 393.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…fd92backed Yes | 5c | 375$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c0…97b0backed No | 80c | 340$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…ab32backed No | 72c | 340$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee6…ebaabacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066d…b76bbacked Yes | 29c | 172.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652a…2b93backed Yes | 23c | 123.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…6b8ebacked Yes | 41c | 117.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a7…5049backed Yes | 12c | 115$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 108.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | -19.5wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7381…4a8cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34e6…e673backed Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 93.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 71c | 91.34$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01a…e60abacked Yes | 27c | 72.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 65c | 22.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -8.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.22per pick | 22cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in December?this page
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in December?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in December?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in December?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $32 in December?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $36 in December?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in December?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in December?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.