Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24ec7f7f9162b534e051bd9b01a0459a71746b92caa20857fbedca967d1a4e89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Yes | 22c | 3,507$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.78 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 3,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b17…cb13backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b0…26d9backed Yes | 25c | 1,162$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd09…9c71backed Yes | 11c | 900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7440…8053backed Yes | 12c | 840.53$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 68c | 600$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f92…57bcbacked Yes | 10c | 492.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 49c | 315$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.65 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed Yes | 11c | 311.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…3390backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…3cd0backed No | 70c | 244.29$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 43c | 211$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.55 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8df…d316backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 11cpaid | +142.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 130.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ff…6938backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…8db5backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 78 | 1.3%1 W · 77 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b04…3a41backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c2…1398backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5448…18e9backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab58…b07dbacked No | 65c | 88.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a1…c930backed No | 78c | 82.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…4d9dbacked Yes | 53c | 71.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…a63bbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…1d0abacked Yes | 55c | 21.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in December?this page
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in December?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in December?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in December?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in December?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $32 in December?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $36 in December?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in December?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.