Bundesliga · resolved market
Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed9920ebbab4fabcc35205b7f9c5ed1c3ee740322a7b18f1cf6268d152eb1fdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 41c | 7,113$2,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,193.29 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 6,059$3,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,626.1 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 43c | 5,184$2,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,219.17 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 45c | 4,997$2,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,765.85 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 4,123$2,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,064.61 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 42c | 3,449$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.81 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa69…02c1backed Under | 34c | 1,201$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 70c | 1,014$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.16 | 52 | 76.9%40 W · 12 L | +13.0wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +72%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Under | 45c | 533$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Over | 52c | 450$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 56c | 434.59$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.6 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -7.1wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…9e9bbacked Over | 62c | 403.23$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 61c | 400.82$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.19 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 38c | 209.16$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.48 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 55c | 171$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.32 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 60c | 168.3$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 52c | 156.91$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Under | 61c | 150.74$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 61c | 145.65$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.39 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 48c | 125.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 47c | 118.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…65f2backed Under | 43c | 106$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961c…9d72backed Under | 58c | 86.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 38c | 84.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 56c | 71.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed Over | 37c | 60.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…ae82backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Under | 61c | 58.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 57c | 58.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 44c | 56.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Under | 45c | 53.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 55c | 47.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…a72cbacked Under | 44c | 45.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 61c | 44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Under | 75c | 40.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 46c | 34.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 54c | 34.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Under | 57c | 34.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba0…0111backed Over | 53c | 33.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 52c | 32.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Under | 46c | 29.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 41c | 29.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 74c | 28.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 75cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 51c | 22.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 56c | 19.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb763…4a90backed Over | 58c | 19.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477c…fe04backed Under | 64c | 15.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5this page
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 0.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5Under won
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5Under won
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-1.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.