Bundesliga · resolved market
Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x413af683d44d1d9fcd58a3a3dc281b423872898cd6eff3a8aa117f25dc6c0531
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 29c | 2,975$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.65 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…2fa1backed Over | 35c | 2,210$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.81 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 14c | 1,419$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.5 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 8c | 1,155$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.51 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…8654backed Under | 73c | 405.39$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -7.1wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 14c | 297.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…44d6backed Under | 55c | 153.18$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 75c | 117.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.4wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfa69…02c1backed Over | 35c | 63.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x590d…572dbacked Under | 69c | 50.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabd9…dc3abacked Under | 69c | 45.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Over | 34c | 41.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 74c | 37.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 46c | 35.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Under | 64c | 19.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5this page
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 0.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5Under won
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-1.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.