Bundesliga · resolved market
Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e56a24b42054fc3fcd3227072187f10effb7b4625e957c044154d7127cb97e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 69c | 4,628$3,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.47 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…067ebacked Under | 36c | 4,580$1,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,636.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 1c | 3,613$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 29c | 2,034$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.1 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 28c | 1,594$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.85 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 66c | 1,491$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.61 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 26c | 1,147$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.49 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 973.09$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.19 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Under | 38c | 289$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…1035backed Under | 18c | 234.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…a8e0backed Under | 19c | 206.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…44d6backed Over | 57c | 154.11$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 35c | 84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 40c | 64.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…e06ebacked Under | 31c | 34.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd033…d4c6backed Under | 36c | 32.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Under | 35c | 29.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Over | 64c | 29.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 69c | 22.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5this page
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 0.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5Under won
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5Under won
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-1.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.