NFL · resolved market
Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0863b3c18225ed7426d48a81e28dccb451fbe9c3eb24a401a4b67cba0c991b33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 45c | 7,832$3,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,562.83 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Under | 55c | 7,336$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,336.4 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 51c | 3,388$1,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660.33 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Over | 49c | 2,980$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 46c | 2,509$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.93 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 54c | 2,500$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Under | 64c | 700$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 39c | 680$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.4 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Under | 54c | 408.83$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.06 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 52c | 280$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 48c | 279.24$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.2 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…86f6backed Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +346.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 46c | 43.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 47.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bengals (-4.5)Browns won
- Browns vs. BengalsBrowns won
- Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 43.5Under won
- Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 44.5Under won
- Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 45.5Under won
- Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 46.5Under won
- Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: Bengals (-6.5)Browns won
- Spread: Bengals (-7.5)Browns won
- Spread: Bengals (-8.5)Browns won
- Spread: Bengals (-9.5)Browns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.