NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bengals (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x254a2cfd0d90b38525c97dc141aa39ae7c72174a2d0f682d6aef8e72280d65ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brownsof Bengals, Browns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f92…1862backed Bengals | 63c | 4,756$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -6.5wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Bengals | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Browns | 37c | 1,984$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242.11 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Browns | 40c | 1,854$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.71 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Browns | 35c | 1,600$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bengals | 42c | 1,528$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.03 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Browns | 37c | 1,095$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.85 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Browns | 45c | 994.76$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.89 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Bengals | 44c | 800$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f05…4480backed Browns | 75c | 733.33$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Browns | 42c | 554.15$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.95 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Bengals | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Browns | 37c | 500$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…5a50backed Bengals | 59c | 430$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.7 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d5…c873backed Bengals | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Browns | 42c | 288.31$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.22 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Browns | 37c | 250$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Bengals | 59c | 214.42$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.51 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Browns | 41c | 214.42$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.51 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Bengals | 58c | 149.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Browns | 73c | 140$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Browns | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…b2d7backed Bengals | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Browns | 34c | 125$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…a045backed Browns | 36c | 123$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.72 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Browns | 37c | 113.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Browns | 42c | 110.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Browns | 45c | 103.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Bengals | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Browns | 35c | 99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Browns | 33c | 97.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Browns | 35c | 97.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Browns | 16c | 65.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Browns | 35c | 63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Browns | 42c | 62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Browns | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Browns | 42c | 58.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Browns | 39c | 55.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Bengals | 37c | 51.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Bengals | 65c | 50.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf46…a799backed Bengals | 59c | 49.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Bengals | 56c | 47.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036a…4c9abacked Bengals | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Browns | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…930fbacked Bengals | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Bengals | 56c | 39.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Browns | 37c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…91acbacked Bengals | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Browns | 42c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7814…eb75backed Bengals | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Browns | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e97abacked Bengals | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Bengals | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 141 | 58.9%83 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…1ff7backed Bengals | 65c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 55cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd107…add5backed Browns | 44c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Browns | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Browns | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4c…2f6bbacked Browns | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…218cbacked Bengals | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…1f57backed Bengals | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…c7aabacked Bengals | 55c | 22.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ec…06aabacked Bengals | 64c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Bengals | 65c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4390…e842backed Bengals | 64c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Bengals | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed Bengals | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 58cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab3a…b091backed Bengals | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Bengals | 65c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…667fbacked Bengals | 64c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Bengals | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Bengals | 68c | 15.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bengals (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bengals (-4.5)Browns won
- Browns vs. BengalsBrowns won
- Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 43.5Under won
- Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 44.5Under won
- Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 45.5Under won
- Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 46.5Under won
- Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 47.5Under won
- Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: Bengals (-7.5)Browns won
- Spread: Bengals (-8.5)Browns won
- Spread: Bengals (-9.5)Browns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.