NFL · resolved market

Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 43.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafd31a3ba5bd5db0613bd27b1988652efb04c8abc9e33953f386190a1015544e

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,576
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,773

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,576 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	58c	1,202$695 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$695.11	394	47.7%188 W · 206 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	58c	1,184$692 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$691.84	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under	42c	1,000$420 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$580	204	43.6%89 W · 115 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Over	55c	500$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275	392	42.6%167 W · 225 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under	45c	494.78$223 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$272.13	1,065	51.3%546 W · 519 L	+25.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	44c	398.88$174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$225.37	650	48.3%314 W · 336 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6723…a540backed Over	56c	138$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.28	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	54cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa09e…d061backed Over	63c	67.14$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under	41c	60$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.4	342	47.4%162 W · 180 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc716…f0d7backed Under	42c	55$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.9	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over	49c	44$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.54	356	48%171 W · 185 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Under	44c	40$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.4	127	56.7%72 W · 55 L	+8.4wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under	37c	37.14$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.4	276	33.3%92 W · 184 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Under	43c	27.14$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.35	304	42.4%129 W · 175 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under	49c	26$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.26	108	58.3%63 W · 45 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7690…92cbbacked Over	58c	25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	59c	21.19$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	25	52%13 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Over	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	137	51.8%71 W · 66 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 43.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event