NFL · resolved market
Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 46.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cff83c5443df4b9ba9287ba753896c0af225ed9d3d5ab3f4693c54a6a6f117c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x87b6…4ababacked Under | 48c | 8,000$3,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,159.99 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 4,104$2,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,092.64 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 52c | 3,152$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.04 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcddb…0d22backed Over | 49c | 948.57$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Under | 49c | 459.94$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.57 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53b0…4daabacked Under | 49c | 408.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.18 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 285.66$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.75 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed Over | 52c | 252.17$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.13 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…298cbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 119.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 52c | 115.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.07 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Over | 52c | 63.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 48c | 62.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Under | 50c | 50.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8396…0de1backed Under | 49c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +130.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 46.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bengals (-4.5)Browns won
- Browns vs. BengalsBrowns won
- Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 43.5Under won
- Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 44.5Under won
- Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 45.5Under won
- Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 47.5Under won
- Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: Bengals (-6.5)Browns won
- Spread: Bengals (-7.5)Browns won
- Spread: Bengals (-8.5)Browns won
- Spread: Bengals (-9.5)Browns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.