NFL · resolved market
Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcec08e55af53f7251fb002e8f0e769a7cc96bd31d92152fb9e9d1e7865fb4c9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Over | 58c | 3,264$1,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,883.28 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 58c | 1,688$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.3 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 47c | 1,200$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.99 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 54c | 980$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.8 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 54c | 428$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.9 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 43c | 358$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.06 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 329.12$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.21 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.09 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 52c | 227.29$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.21 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Under | 46c | 217.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Under | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…1eacbacked Under | 46c | 152.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.17 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 43c | 101.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 100.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Under | 42c | 81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd107…add5backed Under | 51c | 78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Under | 46c | 54.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…0473backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 49c | 49.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Over | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759b…2c89backed Under | 48c | 23.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…7d84backed Over | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Over | 58c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 44.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bengals (-4.5)Browns won
- Browns vs. BengalsBrowns won
- Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 43.5Under won
- Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 45.5Under won
- Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 46.5Under won
- Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 47.5Under won
- Browns vs. Bengals: O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: Bengals (-6.5)Browns won
- Spread: Bengals (-7.5)Browns won
- Spread: Bengals (-8.5)Browns won
- Spread: Bengals (-9.5)Browns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.