NFL · resolved market

Spread: Bengals (-9.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadcaefb6a276ebffca0fcfe34ea6eb990a8d88a532394533fadf007e2e13a3a3

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Brownsof Bengals, Browns
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $169,338
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $196,597

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,338 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc660…bd28backed Bengals	47c	82,419$38,940 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38,939.91	67	64.2%43 W · 24 L	+9.7wins	+0.14per pick	50cpaid	+35.3%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Browns	53c	68,800$36,464 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32,336	87	47.1%41 W · 46 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Browns	52c	40,000$20,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19,200	51	54.9%28 W · 23 L	+4.9wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+39.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1f4…544cbacked Browns	52c	19,709$10,249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,460.32	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf782…6849backed Bengals	48c	15,450$7,364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,364	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43fd…99a7backed Bengals	48c	12,750$6,150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,150	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bengals	48c	11,023$5,245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,244.99	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2734…6d9ebacked Browns	53c	5,660$3,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,660.38	56	58.9%33 W · 23 L	+5.1wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Bengals	48c	4,772$2,291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,290.52	224	50%112 W · 112 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Bengals	49c	4,000$1,960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,960	144	38.9%56 W · 88 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bengals	48c	2,556$1,227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,226.88	473	48.4%229 W · 244 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Browns	51c	2,372$1,205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,167.07	240	56.7%136 W · 104 L	+19.3wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Bengals	48c	2,008$964 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$963.84	94	47.9%45 W · 49 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4762…ba70backed Bengals	49c	1,910$936 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$935.86	73	46.6%34 W · 39 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf08…9f3fbacked Browns	52c	1,154$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$553.85	80	56.3%45 W · 35 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bengals	47c	1,007$473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$473.31	568	52.3%297 W · 271 L	+26.3wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Bengals	53c	947.67$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.14	127	48%61 W · 66 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0914…9c93backed Browns	47c	935.17$440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$495.64	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+2.5wins	+0.35per pick	36cpaid	+115%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Browns	48c	739.46$355 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$384.5	736	51.2%377 W · 359 L	+25.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x26e7…cc6cbacked Bengals	48c	384.62$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.62	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.24per pick	49cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe727…5e8dbacked Browns	52c	384.62$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.62	175	48%84 W · 91 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8a0…35b6backed Bengals	50c	366.5$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.25	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Bengals	65c	100$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	356	48%171 W · 185 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ae…004ebacked Browns	35c	100$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65	148	18.2%27 W · 121 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Bengals	50c	91.64$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.82	62	46.8%29 W · 33 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Bengals	48c	56$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.88	363	41.9%152 W · 211 L	-13.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Bengals	47c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	103	53.4%55 W · 48 L	+7.9wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb91…ff36backed Bengals	80c	12.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	80%4 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	79cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bengals (-9.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event