TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 151.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$253,565

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $253,565 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x93ab…9723backed Under49c43,958$21,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,332.398145.7%37 W · 44 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Under49c31,654$15,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,997.5517643.8%77 W · 99 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over50c27,101$13,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,522.7946246.5%215 W · 247 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Over51c24,402$12,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,444.8621646.8%101 W · 115 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Over52c23,084$11,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,960.78666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+30.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Over49c18,054$8,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,846.454348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under49c12,977$6,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,562.4812,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6157…9fb4backed Over52c8,578$4,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,460.692445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over51c7,541$3,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,817.0839454.6%215 W · 179 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under50c5,452$2,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,725.9423243.5%101 W · 131 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbca6…73e3backed Under51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4508946.1%41 W · 48 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04d2…4c2cbacked Over51c3,932$2,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,005.3115748.4%76 W · 81 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under67c3,759$2,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.485,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked Over51c2,802$1,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.121353.8%7 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under59c2,674$1,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.231,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Under50c2,577$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.6325043.2%108 W · 142 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under51c2,497$1,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.8819958.3%116 W · 83 L+15.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Under48c2,440$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,268.788148.1%39 W · 42 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over49c2,068$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.452,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x694d…c5a4backed Over39c2,026$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7975352.8%28 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf12e…7939backed Over49c1,974$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.253748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under49c1,640$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.2618744.9%84 W · 103 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under49c1,633$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.8315858.2%92 W · 66 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x128a…a1b0backed Over46c1,586$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.62250%11 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed Under53c1,575$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.192040%8 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under53c1,507$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.383,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under50c1,490$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.1711456.1%64 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over46c1,379$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.545,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Under49c1,361$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.235147.6%167 W · 184 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Under52c1,306$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.884744.7%21 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7248…8cb4backed Over49c1,302$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.1416341.7%68 W · 95 L-9.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked Over48c1,195$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.577643.4%33 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd817…ac33backed Over48c1,195$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.578444%37 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under51c1,173$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.987753.2%41 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Under49c1,119$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.873943.6%17 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under49c1,111$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.612,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Under50c1,100$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55014447.9%69 W · 75 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa59…75ecbacked Under52c1,099$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.5214346.9%67 W · 76 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed Over49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49011542.6%49 W · 66 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Under50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50042246.2%195 W · 227 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e44…1953backed Under51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4901250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3242…0e0bbacked Over37c991.84$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.68728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-43.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Over48c989.94$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.177938%30 W · 49 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Over48c989.94$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.175942.4%25 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1f7…c4e5backed Over49c985.93$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.113343.6%58 W · 75 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7851…d471backed Over52c981.23$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.363256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5b0…f655backed Over48c841$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.684438.6%17 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-25.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over51c835.76$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.2455749.2%274 W · 283 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked Under50c830.32$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.168046.3%37 W · 43 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Over37c775.94$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.0274152.6%390 W · 351 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over46c756.78$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.251,23444.8%553 W · 681 L-32.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over44c711.81$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.22,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Under49c700$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35716147.2%76 W · 85 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69ac…03e9backed Under51c668.55$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.687258.3%42 W · 30 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over42c655.28$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.784,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Under50c594.75$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.383357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fbc…8a18backed Over46c591.81$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.234353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10fb…29bfbacked Under49c566.42$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.88650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe182…b624backed Over49c527.27$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.365552.7%29 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf05d…ac5ebacked Under49c495.63$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.773548.6%17 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93a2…5181backed Over42c458.78$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.6913141.2%54 W · 77 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x295e…218abacked Over49c458.65$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.74616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick51cpaid-66.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3486…b78ebacked Over49c458.65$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.742445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…aa15backed Over44c450.63$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.283050%15 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over51c449.04$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.011,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60e8…50c2backed Under79c425.24$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.35143.1%22 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-25.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Under50c417.58$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.44052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee62…bc6abacked Under51c388.73$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.481637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Over49c385.04$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.672343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Over49c385.03$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.6618048.9%88 W · 92 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa307…8ea3backed Over50c367.29$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.6411243.8%49 W · 63 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a0d…82c9backed Under49c330.09$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.343141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x862a…d26bbacked Over39c325.21$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.851346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Over46c323.36$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.714325.9%37 W · 106 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Over44c315.44$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.7953635.6%191 W · 345 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Under51c311.76$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.7612344.7%55 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c83…cf0abacked Under50c304.78$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.3913343.6%58 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1534944.9%22 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x004e…c650backed Over51c298.85$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.428845.5%40 W · 48 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-14.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4614…9cd6backed Under50c297.26$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.582657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under49c294.94$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.4291848.9%449 W · 469 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60c…d2e2backed Under50c294.4$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.26261.3%38 W · 24 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+16.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Under50c293.78$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.317258.7%101 W · 71 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Under50c289.05$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1459050%45 W · 45 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b02…f3d9backed Over35c261.33$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.85959.3%35 W · 24 L+7.9wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+28%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf1f1…2d5fbacked Under51c258.57$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.523154.8%17 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a67…ef6bbacked Under50c256.73$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.7314148.9%69 W · 72 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under48c254.17$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.171,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d9…c125backed Under49c252.87$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.965561.8%34 W · 21 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+16.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x362a…8683backed Under50c246.51$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.264355.8%24 W · 19 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcd8…9908backed Under49c243.26$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.023056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa5b…2f8bbacked Over50c213.35$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.67540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0de…1543backed Under51c211.04$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.412100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Under52c209.69$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.7222250%111 W · 111 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x523a…e246backed Under50c207.41$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94d8…37e6backed Under50c202$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1013554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Under50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1005356.6%30 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Over50c199.35$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8762451.1%319 W · 305 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c34…2d7dbacked Under50c198.79$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.6615252.6%80 W · 72 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f9…84e6backed Under51c198.25$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.1420642.7%88 W · 118 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.