TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Michigan State Spartansof Michigan State Spartans, Louisville Cardinals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,929

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,929 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6814…a9e7backed Louisville Cardinals14c3,482$496 inLost-$496.023,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Michigan State Spartans54c2,000$1,070 inWon+$93018556.8%105 W · 80 L+14.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Louisville Cardinals43c1,115$480 inLost-$479.7746246.5%215 W · 247 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x743a…ddcdbacked Louisville Cardinals51c1,100$561 inLost-$5616142.6%26 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+49.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Michigan State Spartans53c1,010$535 inWon+$474.894546.7%21 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x708f…b2fabacked Michigan State Spartans50c992.12$496 inWon+$496.06333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a33…2534backed Michigan State Spartans49c800$392 inWon+$4085556.4%31 W · 24 L+6.4wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+18.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x67a8…1f1ebacked Louisville Cardinals53c677.29$359 inLost-$358.963946.2%18 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Louisville Cardinals44c577.32$256 inLost-$256.1931837.7%120 W · 198 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Michigan State Spartans50c495.63$248 inWon+$247.8123941.4%99 W · 140 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Louisville Cardinals47c442.76$208 inLost-$208.1752843.6%230 W · 298 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Michigan State Spartans51c362.66$184 inWon+$178.2312,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x862a…d26bbacked Michigan State Spartans56c218.6$122 inWon+$96.181346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Louisville Cardinals46c107.75$50 inLost-$49.572,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Michigan State Spartans58c103.49$60 inWon+$43.6122250%111 W · 111 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Michigan State Spartans49c99.12$49 inWon+$50.5514447.9%69 W · 75 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Louisville Cardinals40c88.26$35 inLost-$34.9124951.8%129 W · 120 L+19.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x779a…1f08backed Louisville Cardinals23c80.9$19 inLost-$18.841435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x100d…1baabacked Louisville Cardinals48c76.99$37 inLost-$36.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-46.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Louisville Cardinals50c60$30 inLost-$29.757655%317 W · 259 L+17.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x341b…b92cbacked Louisville Cardinals51c37.69$19 inLost-$19.171764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b01…a4cbbacked Michigan State Spartans49c30.8$15 inWon+$15.712334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.