Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 145.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1f50c1d2ee978c750d2b8c4c3fcd138b759050324e926fa5020320fd1b9a067
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,814 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Under | 61c | 3,801$2,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,328.75 | 318 | 37.7%120 W · 198 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 40c | 3,793$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,293.95 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 65c | 1,382$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.17 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 34c | 1,116$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.2 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 507.52$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.46 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Under | 77c | 500.7$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.92 | 185 | 56.8%105 W · 80 L | +14.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Over | 42c | 417.12$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.93 | 131 | 41.2%54 W · 77 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 48c | 157.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 528 | 43.6%230 W · 298 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Under | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 51c | 124.72$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 462 | 46.5%215 W · 247 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Over | 42c | 87.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 327 | 51.7%169 W · 158 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ef…39b6backed Under | 67c | 73.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 55c | 65.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 33c | 60.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 38c | 58.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 441 | 46.5%205 W · 236 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 61c | 57.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Under | 50c | 52.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 39c | 50.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 134 | 45.5%61 W · 73 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 49c | 50.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 68c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 330 | 58.2%192 W · 138 L | +24.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe838…50f2backed Under | 54c | 42.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Over | 35c | 34.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 334 | 45.5%152 W · 182 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…2ddcbacked Over | 49c | 30.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…a4cbbacked Over | 34c | 30.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 43c | 29.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Under | 65c | 28.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Under | 66c | 26.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Over | 39c | 25.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Under | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 145.5this page
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State SpartansMichigan State Spartans won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 141.5Over won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 143.5Over won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 146.5Under won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 147.5Under won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 149.5Under won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 150.5Under won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 151.5Under won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 154.5Under won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-10.5)Louisville Cardinals won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-4.5)Michigan State Spartans won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-5.5)Michigan State Spartans won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-6.5)Michigan State Spartans won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-7.5)Michigan State Spartans won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-8.5)Louisville Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.