Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 150.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff3877173d4f158691d661bd2a967a7314829dbcab6f5df822a3e0c99484c4fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,931 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Over | 52c | 19,875$10,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,335.22 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 10,793$5,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,607.27 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2f…be86backed Under | 48c | 8,376$4,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,355.61 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…c5a4backed Over | 50c | 1,845$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.01 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 46c | 1,049$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.71 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…8e52backed Over | 54c | 917.88$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.65 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3a…3246backed Over | 30c | 915.12$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.54 | 149 | 40.3%60 W · 89 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 864.62$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.93 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 52c | 705.76$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367 | 462 | 46.5%215 W · 247 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 572.86$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.34 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x190f…01f3backed Under | 51c | 315.89$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Over | 54c | 275.36$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.7 | 222 | 50%111 W · 111 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 46c | 274.33$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.14 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 38c | 248.52$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.44 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 47c | 210.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.78 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 47c | 210.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.78 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 48c | 198.24$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.09 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed Under | 48c | 108.03$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 48c | 95.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 528 | 43.6%230 W · 298 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 48c | 86.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 296 | 50.7%150 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ed…96e1backed Under | 48c | 82.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 48c | 80.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 330 | 58.2%192 W · 138 L | +24.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Over | 54c | 73.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Under | 50c | 68.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 249 | 51.8%129 W · 120 L | +19.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Under | 47c | 63.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03a…d7c4backed Under | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…a4cbbacked Over | 47c | 34.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…ce01backed Under | 48c | 30.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Over | 39c | 29.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 334 | 45.5%152 W · 182 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 41c | 27.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Over | 50c | 26.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0553…047abacked Over | 69c | 20.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 150.5this page
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State SpartansMichigan State Spartans won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 141.5Over won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 143.5Over won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 145.5Over won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 146.5Under won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 147.5Under won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 149.5Under won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 151.5Under won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 154.5Under won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-10.5)Louisville Cardinals won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-4.5)Michigan State Spartans won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-5.5)Michigan State Spartans won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-6.5)Michigan State Spartans won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-7.5)Michigan State Spartans won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-8.5)Louisville Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.