TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Michigan State Spartansof Michigan State Spartans, Louisville Cardinals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$841,839

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $841,839 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2b3f…3446backed Michigan State Spartans50c143,808$71,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,489.075367.9%36 W · 17 L+9.6wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+32.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Michigan State Spartans47c86,132$40,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,650.1622645.6%103 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Louisville Cardinals52c77,909$40,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,178.28250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2734…6d9ebacked Louisville Cardinals53c73,256$38,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,825.521936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xacae…6798backed Michigan State Spartans48c68,954$33,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,856.210749.5%53 W · 54 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Louisville Cardinals50c48,075$24,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,036.6146246.5%215 W · 247 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd26e…6d8dbacked Louisville Cardinals51c40,000$20,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,4002860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Louisville Cardinals50c28,099$14,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,070.882,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12af…ff78backed Michigan State Spartans49c20,357$9,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,382.21955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Louisville Cardinals51c11,664$5,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,948.5124351.4%125 W · 118 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Michigan State Spartans50c10,556$5,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,313.764551.1%23 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Louisville Cardinals50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00030139.2%118 W · 183 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Louisville Cardinals52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,20010745.8%49 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ec1…057cbacked Louisville Cardinals53c9,352$4,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,956.418957.3%51 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Louisville Cardinals52c7,500$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,90036944.2%163 W · 206 L-19.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Michigan State Spartans49c6,122$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,122.2227755.2%153 W · 124 L+19.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Michigan State Spartans49c6,017$2,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,068.574047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Louisville Cardinals51c6,016$3,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,068.0922043.2%95 W · 125 L-0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Louisville Cardinals52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60011048.2%53 W · 57 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Michigan State Spartans51c4,437$2,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,195.362,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Louisville Cardinals50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010739.3%42 W · 65 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Louisville Cardinals50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010543.8%46 W · 59 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Louisville Cardinals51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0402,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Michigan State Spartans49c3,516$1,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,785.994,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Louisville Cardinals52c3,334$1,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,733.6715858.2%92 W · 66 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3817…7d10backed Michigan State Spartans48c3,304$1,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,718.0229845.3%135 W · 163 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Louisville Cardinals51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.9974051.5%381 W · 359 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Louisville Cardinals50c2,698$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.8912,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc66b…1435backed Louisville Cardinals47c2,197$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.281346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf52b…905bbacked Louisville Cardinals53c2,113$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.151947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Michigan State Spartans54c1,620$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.0144146.5%205 W · 236 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Louisville Cardinals52c1,239$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.3234746.1%160 W · 187 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c83…cf0abacked Louisville Cardinals52c1,100$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57213343.6%58 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Louisville Cardinals52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5207938%30 W · 49 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e44…1953backed Louisville Cardinals52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5201250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Louisville Cardinals51c991.25$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.542050%10 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Louisville Cardinals51c990$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9518556.8%105 W · 80 L+14.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Michigan State Spartans48c954.29$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.2317643.8%77 W · 99 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Louisville Cardinals52c953.13$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.634035%14 W · 26 L-5.7wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-24.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7a33…2534backed Michigan State Spartans48c796.5$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.185556.4%31 W · 24 L+6.4wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+18.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Louisville Cardinals49c633.92$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.151,23444.8%553 W · 681 L-32.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Louisville Cardinals51c600$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30614151.1%72 W · 69 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7592…f661backed Louisville Cardinals45c502$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.53647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Louisville Cardinals50c396.5$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.2517051.2%87 W · 83 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2155…f351backed Louisville Cardinals49c356.13$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.472941.4%12 W · 17 L-5.0wins-0.17per pick59cpaid-34%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x190f…01f3backed Michigan State Spartans48c334$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.68850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Michigan State Spartans49c306.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.1213052.3%68 W · 62 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Michigan State Spartans49c303.44$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.7627045.2%122 W · 148 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b15…2a05backed Michigan State Spartans50c283.5$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.75580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+39.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Louisville Cardinals51c204.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.553148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd454…b47fbacked Louisville Cardinals53c190.77$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1121850.9%111 W · 107 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc0…099dbacked Louisville Cardinals53c179.22$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.984445.5%20 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x534c…70f1backed Louisville Cardinals52c137.83$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.173441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Louisville Cardinals48c132.15$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.452843.6%230 W · 298 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Michigan State Spartans51c126.27$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.233445.5%152 W · 182 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Michigan State Spartans78c117.17$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.117045.7%32 W · 38 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Louisville Cardinals51c101.91$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.992958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabc2…34f3backed Louisville Cardinals57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dcc…45f6backed Michigan State Spartans53c94.36$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.351275%9 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+21.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x694d…c5a4backed Michigan State Spartans58c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.85352.8%28 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaa1…e6fdbacked Louisville Cardinals52c79.82$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.51428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2841…3c5abacked Louisville Cardinals47c75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.874334.9%15 W · 28 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x360b…982fbacked Michigan State Spartans49c65.63$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.476446.9%30 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x100d…1baabacked Michigan State Spartans62c63.7$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-46.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b1f…4eebbacked Louisville Cardinals47c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.413147.3%62 W · 69 L-9.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c67…e838backed Louisville Cardinals46c59.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.491323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-42.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc74c…2413backed Louisville Cardinals59c54.33$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.822634.6%9 W · 17 L-5.4wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-36.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8f19…b0cabacked Louisville Cardinals52c51.85$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.961464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Michigan State Spartans49c51.55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0711854.2%64 W · 54 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11bf…770dbacked Michigan State Spartans49c50.57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.795024%12 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67b5…7276backed Louisville Cardinals49c50.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.762133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-35.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9382…4ee3backed Louisville Cardinals53c48.89$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.913148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Michigan State Spartans50c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5513445.5%61 W · 73 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98db…bf6cbacked Michigan State Spartans49c40.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.261492.9%13 W · 1 L+6.0wins+0.43per pick50cpaid+81.6%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xd178…3834backed Louisville Cardinals51c39.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.22837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d27…676ebacked Louisville Cardinals52c38.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.129441.5%39 W · 55 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb2a…4e1fbacked Louisville Cardinals51c38.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.69633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-36.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98cf…b8eabacked Louisville Cardinals53c38.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.15119.1%1 W · 10 L-4.9wins-0.45per pick54cpaid-82.8%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x82d7…9900backed Louisville Cardinals53c37.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.632050%10 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked Michigan State Spartans49c30.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.676347.6%30 W · 33 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeca1…57e4backed Michigan State Spartans53c30.58$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.243938.5%15 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e83…2e2abacked Michigan State Spartans49c30.34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.484259.5%25 W · 17 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Louisville Cardinals51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.36654.5%36 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Michigan State Spartans49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.334952.1%182 W · 167 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Michigan State Spartans53c29.96$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1557655%317 W · 259 L+17.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Louisville Cardinals41c29.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.222756.4%128 W · 99 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb0c5…b613backed Louisville Cardinals51c29.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.174959.2%29 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a4…da61backed Louisville Cardinals52c28.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.82540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde2…3fcfbacked Louisville Cardinals51c28.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d2…380bbacked Louisville Cardinals53c28.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.871163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Louisville Cardinals43c27.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.871,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50e0…776ebacked Michigan State Spartans52c27.24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.085038%19 W · 31 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Louisville Cardinals53c24.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1322250%111 W · 111 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x524f…bcbdbacked Louisville Cardinals53c22.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.111118.2%2 W · 9 L-4.1wins-0.37per pick55cpaid-68.9%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Michigan State Spartans52c19.15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1419147.6%91 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.