Europa Conference League · resolved market
Hibernian FC vs. KAA Gent: Team to Advance
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2076a2e5fcd6695da29b5d01b0465c0598abc5db8542736696d7de53ef3d05b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- KAA Gentof Hibernian FC, KAA Gent
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed KAA Gent | 58c | 698.72$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.01 | 412 | 45.6%188 W · 224 L | +25.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hibernian FC | 42c | 661$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.62 | 677 | 56.3%381 W · 296 L | +34.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…4040backed KAA Gent | 76c | 609.74$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.07 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc73b…f046backed Hibernian FC | 10c | 550$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Hibernian FC | 46c | 428.89$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.95 | 1,104 | 45.4%501 W · 603 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Hibernian FC | 52c | 199.35$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.75 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Hibernian FC | 11c | 174.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 205 | 43.9%90 W · 115 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Hibernian FC | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed KAA Gent | 51c | 40.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 429 | 57.1%245 W · 184 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…3273backed Hibernian FC | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed KAA Gent | 51c | 33.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 891 | 53.4%476 W · 415 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Hibernian FC | 42c | 30.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 81 | 35.8%29 W · 52 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hibernian FC vs. KAA Gent: Team to Advancethis page
- Hibernian FC vs. KAA Gent: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Hibernian FC vs. KAA Gent: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hibernian FC vs. KAA Gent: Hibernian FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Hibernian FC vs. KAA Gent: KAA Gent O/U 2.5Over won
- Hibernian FC vs. KAA Gent: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hibernian FC vs. KAA Gent: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hibernian FC vs. KAA Gent: O/U 3.5Over won
- Hibernian FC vs. KAA Gent: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Hibernian FC (-1.5)KAA Gent won
- Spread: KAA Gent (-1.5)Hibernian FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.