Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC St. Gallen vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x184849c7a82351a425ebec279b57e7a3cc78ecb7711a51b7787bf67172f2dc14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 24c | 1,418$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.42 | 334 | 42.5%142 W · 192 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 29c | 613.24$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.4 | 3,247 | 42.2%1,370 W · 1,877 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 66c | 300$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 933 | 41.4%386 W · 547 L | -15.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 46c | 299.98$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 26c | 270.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,222 | 45.3%553 W · 669 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…47b2backed Under | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 54c | 219.72$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.07 | 442 | 51.6%228 W · 214 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 43c | 80.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 54c | 80.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 76c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 891 | 53.4%476 W · 415 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 69c | 59.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 195 | 45.6%89 W · 106 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 76c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…6562backed Over | 54c | 52.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 77c | 44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 47c | 27.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 2,434 | 37.3%909 W · 1,525 L | -9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…7d35backed Under | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 76cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 76c | 14.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 429 | 57.1%245 W · 184 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC St. Gallen vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 4.5this page
- FC St. Gallen vs. FC Nordsjælland: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC St. Gallen vs. FC Nordsjælland: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC St. Gallen vs. FC Nordsjælland: FC Nordsjælland O/U 2.5Over won
- FC St. Gallen vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC St. Gallen vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC St. Gallen vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC St. Gallen vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 5.5Under won
- FC St. Gallen vs. FC Nordsjælland: Team to AdvanceFC Nordsjælland won
- Spread: FC Nordsjælland (-1.5)FC St. Gallen won
- Spread: FC Nordsjælland (-2.5)FC St. Gallen won
- Spread: FC St. Gallen (-1.5)FC Nordsjælland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.