Europa Conference League · resolved market
Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cba687983f60bd0fb9258cb11485a4e135bd10e51d142c74e6877961fc9602e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 40c | 5,214$2,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,094.86 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6876…8dc9backed Over | 75c | 2,879$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.16 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 64c | 2,510$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,608.4 | 334 | 42.5%142 W · 192 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 34c | 1,993$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.46 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 56c | 1,855$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.02 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 54c | 1,217$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.15 | 1,895 | 38.7%734 W · 1,161 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 33c | 1,168$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.84 | 1,222 | 45.3%553 W · 669 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Under | 37c | 1,085$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.46 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 32c | 1,025$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.45 | 659 | 43.9%289 W · 370 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 34c | 1,012$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.07 | 772 | 48.8%377 W · 395 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2393…d54dbacked Over | 71c | 971.9$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.19 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Over | 56c | 799.98$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.99 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +251%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 66c | 761.2$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.52 | 2,434 | 37.3%909 W · 1,525 L | -9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2afc…317abacked Over | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.06 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 38c | 482.24$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.25 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 73c | 433.84$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.54 | 1,219 | 36.3%442 W · 777 L | -18.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 397.75$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.65 | 3,247 | 42.2%1,370 W · 1,877 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 29c | 364.04$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.47 | 251 | 41%103 W · 148 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 44c | 346.64$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.52 | 1,104 | 45.4%501 W · 603 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 67c | 340.5$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.89 | 145 | 61.4%89 W · 56 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Over | 48c | 330.53$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.88 | 388 | 55.4%215 W · 173 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 68c | 292.64$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 57c | 249.6$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.38 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 44c | 229.03$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.77 | 442 | 51.6%228 W · 214 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…24c2backed Over | 30c | 197$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.9 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Under | 50c | 195.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 27c | 192.21$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.31 | 325 | 47.7%155 W · 170 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 17c | 182.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a46…2482backed Over | 30c | 153.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 27c | 149.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.18 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ec…a9c4backed Over | 73c | 139.4$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 68c | 119.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.59 | 636 | 49.5%315 W · 321 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…e06ebacked Under | 37c | 109.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 70c | 101.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.82 | 1,200 | 47.4%569 W · 631 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf76…dfcbbacked Under | 70c | 91.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf897…7f01backed Under | 72c | 91.67$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Over | 68c | 79.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 222 | 37.8%84 W · 138 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 58c | 79.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 933 | 41.4%386 W · 547 L | -15.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 72c | 75.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Under | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 107 | 66.4%71 W · 36 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 29c | 70.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68f8…12c8backed Under | 74c | 60.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Over | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 137 | 31.4%43 W · 94 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2914…aff6backed Under | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 52c | 33.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Under | 68c | 31.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 408 | 44.4%181 W · 227 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 59c | 24.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…8d69backed Under | 68c | 24.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…d49dbacked Under | 68c | 24.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 70c | 18.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…8a0dbacked Under | 68c | 14.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 3.5this page
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: Ferencvárosi TC O/U 1.5Over won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 0.5Over won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 1.5Over won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 2.5Over won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 4.5Under won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 5.5Under won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: Team to AdvanceFerencvárosi TC won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: Trabzonspor O/U 0.5Under won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: Trabzonspor O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Ferencvárosi TC (-1.5)Ferencvárosi TC won
- Spread: Ferencvárosi TC (-2.5)Ferencvárosi TC won
- Spread: Trabzonspor (-1.5)Ferencvárosi TC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.