Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Trabzonspor (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea6491d114e76e34e4a0e445ddce81ec20114e8d6e92cd7f7e596e5af691e253
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ferencvárosi TCof Trabzonspor, Ferencvárosi TC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Trabzonspor | 4c | 3,497$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.92 | 3,247 | 42.2%1,370 W · 1,877 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ad…089abacked Trabzonspor | 7c | 2,700$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Trabzonspor | 19c | 2,023$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.43 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Ferencvárosi TC | 78c | 1,536$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.92 | 325 | 47.7%155 W · 170 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71bf…f6edbacked Ferencvárosi TC | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Ferencvárosi TC | 77c | 984.21$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.95 | 1,041 | 48%500 W · 541 L | +18.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Trabzonspor | 23c | 652.17$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Ferencvárosi TC | 77c | 508.17$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.88 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff6…d1fdbacked Trabzonspor | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Ferencvárosi TC | 79c | 458.17$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.09 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x487e…0d66backed Trabzonspor | 24c | 426.08$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf4…5324backed Trabzonspor | 24c | 417.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf481…1b6bbacked Trabzonspor | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Trabzonspor | 21c | 406$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 414 | 42.3%175 W · 239 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Ferencvárosi TC | 76c | 305.96$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.07 | 1,034 | 50.8%525 W · 509 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e9…e746backed Trabzonspor | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Trabzonspor | 5c | 230.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Trabzonspor | 21c | 148.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 1,200 | 47.4%569 W · 631 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Ferencvárosi TC | 80c | 128$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Ferencvárosi TC | 78c | 103.96$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…3961backed Trabzonspor | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Ferencvárosi TC | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 636 | 49.5%315 W · 321 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Ferencvárosi TC | 76c | 77.75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 2,434 | 37.3%909 W · 1,525 L | -9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Ferencvárosi TC | 77c | 62.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Trabzonspor | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Ferencvárosi TC | 76c | 62.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 891 | 53.4%476 W · 415 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ff…4e38backed Ferencvárosi TC | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trabzonspor (-1.5)this page
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: Ferencvárosi TC O/U 1.5Over won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 0.5Over won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 1.5Over won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 2.5Over won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 3.5Over won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 4.5Under won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 5.5Under won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: Team to AdvanceFerencvárosi TC won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: Trabzonspor O/U 0.5Under won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Trabzonspor: Trabzonspor O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Ferencvárosi TC (-1.5)Ferencvárosi TC won
- Spread: Ferencvárosi TC (-2.5)Ferencvárosi TC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.