Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a3987ed4224b0488e135e9f5a0fda2b76978c64b6e8aada2c52925568f9b4b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 25c | 1,017$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 13c | 920$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 7c | 899.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x750b…609fbacked Under | 7c | 499.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 15c | 436$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…ffbebacked Over | 80c | 406$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.53 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 61c | 352.27$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.74 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 47c | 299.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.4 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 15c | 262.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6f…7248backed Under | 11c | 241.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2d…d35bbacked Over | 47c | 210$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed Under | 15c | 196$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 74c | 179.57$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 48c | 162.14$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.17 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 53c | 126$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Under | 12c | 117$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba78…273ebacked Over | 54c | 95.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 56c | 89.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 33c | 74.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Over | 53c | 73.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 50c | 59.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 33c | 49.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94f8…4fb2backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5this page
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5Under won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 3.5Under won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-1.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-1.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.