Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6650758f6add4909cc88d929da5095fb6d0ab47b1442e884059a79b34d910c0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Yes | 59c | 4,527$2,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,690.3 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 36c | 3,412$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,195.8 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccfa…dd3fbacked Yes | 67c | 1,485$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 33c | 1,194$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 35c | 804.32$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.33 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 33c | 587.01$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.63 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed No | 49c | 529.21$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.16 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 33c | 493$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.41 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 70c | 452.65$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.24 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 59c | 447.13$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.33 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 71c | 400.17$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.84 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes | 66c | 364$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.24 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Yes | 67c | 304$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.68 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 40c | 299.5$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.8 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6190…5d90backed No | 49c | 288.32$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 70c | 271.61$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.32 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed No | 63c | 236.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…c775backed Yes | 57c | 218.56$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 32c | 217.57$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.57 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Yes | 67c | 192.54$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 33c | 169.89$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.03 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 67c | 160.7$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.91 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…866bbacked Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Yes | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 33c | 99.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 45c | 97.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9043…af14backed Yes | 67c | 97.29$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked No | 29c | 85.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5362…d242backed Yes | 38c | 60.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x114d…661fbacked Yes | 70c | 60.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c38…291fbacked Yes | 73c | 20.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5Under won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 3.5Under won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-1.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-1.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.