Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 May 11-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fcd1b07b1035db379b7a0a96ee1c8b752945a72b8dd389dba6fe5b9c92c4f00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 31c | 2,711$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,861.3 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…f0b2backed No | 63c | 2,300$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5a…df23backed Yes | 29c | 2,138$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,517.93 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1e…248dbacked Yes | 57c | 2,103$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a9…0d8bbacked No | 59c | 1,545$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.1 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…8d6ebacked No | 73c | 1,500$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.4 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…dd73backed Yes | 75c | 1,500$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed Yes | 51c | 1,405$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.82 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf70e…81dfbacked No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 12c | 798.73$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…5186backed No | 36c | 772.3$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.17 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 47c | 700$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 51c | 680.89$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.02 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…a096backed No | 71c | 500$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.2 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 56c | 280.45$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.44 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…53bebacked Yes | 64c | 261.53$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…3248backed Yes | 66c | 229.64$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 211.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.46 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…01cbbacked No | 25c | 205$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc891…1cbebacked No | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed No | 9c | 199.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa251…505fbacked Yes | 45c | 169$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.36 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 49cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 55c | 112.13$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 56c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec26…aa00backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…008bbacked No | 14c | 99.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…f2babacked Yes | 23c | 98.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +115.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 68.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de5…d7a5backed Yes | 26c | 60.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66da…69b0backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba22…4333backed Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9a…3e34backed No | 43c | 34.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b6…1332backed Yes | 58c | 34.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cc49backed No | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5e…3921backed No | 47c | 23.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5428…38ecbacked Yes | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20aa…e26bbacked No | 72c | 16.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 May 11-17?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 11-17?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 11-17?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 11-17?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 11-17?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 May 11-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.