Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f3ee98ff629c0fc88c91c7a9597bcaa22bfeddcbc471c0419939e3a2f08fc1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa450…452fbacked Yes | 0c | 11,390$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e8…9a67backed Yes | 24c | 7,564$1,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,842.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed No | 77c | 6,989$5,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,572.64 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 45c | 6,973$3,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,112.26 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 4c | 5,600$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.25 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 20c | 2,965$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.83 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de1…e0debacked No | 43c | 2,327$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,327.44 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf70e…81dfbacked No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81aa…c075backed No | 74c | 1,622$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a9…0d8bbacked No | 71c | 1,382$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.69 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,220$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed Yes | 2c | 777.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ce…6781backed Yes | 14c | 686.91$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked No | 43c | 628.81$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.07 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x104a…5b05backed Yes | 19c | 515.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…76dcbacked No | 55c | 290$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.3 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…5186backed Yes | 29c | 249.91$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.12 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7af5…d57abacked Yes | 6c | 249.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes | 12c | 227.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e74…6d51backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…3ffebacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c11…ef93backed No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…f2babacked Yes | 24c | 98.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +115.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc017…a219backed Yes | 13c | 82.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20aa…e26bbacked No | 62c | 69.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe772…9084backed No | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa9…8b89backed Yes | 37c | 54.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9103…225bbacked No | 52c | 47.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2de5…d7a5backed Yes | 30c | 44.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7684backed No | 66c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x651f…5857backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 75c | 18.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 11-17?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 11-17?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 11-17?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 May 11-17?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 11-17?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 May 11-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.