Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 11-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09fa1dbfe8a898408d93970334a3416052e03b752a577b0d160ea1cc2986e5ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $162,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x530e…cc11backed Yes | 11c | 17,444$1,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,562.56 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +143.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e8…9a67backed Yes | 18c | 7,576$1,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,213.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d8…6783backed No | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 76c | 5,260$4,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,012.83 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…4926backed No | 7c | 3,833$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41a9…0d8bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,430$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,292.56 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…4deebacked Yes | 4c | 2,027$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,943.96 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,648$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.72 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 37c | 1,608$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed Yes | 6c | 1,565$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,475.65 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6d…c988backed No | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,067$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.23 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6617…29bdbacked No | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 25cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 916.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.54 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 5c | 869.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.27 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 5c | 773.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.65 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 4c | 695.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.93 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb2…25b9backed Yes | 15c | 580$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 6c | 568.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.21 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ad…b47dbacked Yes | 15c | 291.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +579.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 51c | 240.25$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.77 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d03…3a52backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 11cpaid | +238.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…9cb5backed Yes | 6c | 159.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +165.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcebe…0720backed No | 41c | 73.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1e…f51cbacked No | 40c | 44.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149d…ddbdbacked No | 48c | 39.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ae…4fc1backed No | 53c | 35.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1c4cbacked No | 80c | 31.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 76cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac5d…7235backed No | 55c | 20.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 11-17?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 11-17?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 11-17?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 May 11-17?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 11-17?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 May 11-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.