TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Athletics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$521,269
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$596,341

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $521,269 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 274 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x45c9…414bbacked Cleveland Guardians45c90,529$40,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,790.86475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+34.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Cleveland Guardians50c66,875$33,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,411.8598149.9%490 W · 491 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Athletics55c30,000$16,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,50077053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked Athletics56c25,120$14,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,066.9544945.4%204 W · 245 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1de3…a1fabacked Athletics42c22,123$9,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,321.693020%6 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Athletics55c22,055$12,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,027.853,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Cleveland Guardians44c17,463$7,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,779.5286548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Athletics55c15,000$8,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,25060451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5234…4c4fbacked Cleveland Guardians30c15,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,499.984847.9%23 W · 25 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37d3…709abacked Cleveland Guardians44c13,898$6,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,782.888220.7%17 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics63c13,393$8,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,397.844,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Athletics56c13,063$7,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,315.281,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Cleveland Guardians66c10,973$7,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,699.422,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef1b…8697backed Cleveland Guardians28c10,085$2,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,297.1714042.9%60 W · 80 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Athletics55c10,000$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,50055052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a90…0636backed Athletics1c7,871$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92b5…fec6backed Athletics31c7,656$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4003053.3%16 W · 14 L+4.9wins+0.16per pick37cpaid+53%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed Cleveland Guardians71c5,820$4,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.231258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Athletics48c5,766$2,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,781.531,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Athletics45c5,671$2,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,558.991,14142.9%490 W · 651 L-37.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Athletics55c5,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,75075248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Athletics41c4,887$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00036047.5%171 W · 189 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Cleveland Guardians54c4,785$2,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,196.572,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Athletics61c4,576$2,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,785.7612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcbf…d37fbacked Athletics75c4,510$3,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,376.899153.8%49 W · 42 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Athletics56c4,153$2,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,320.771,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Athletics1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011125.2%28 W · 83 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Athletics69c3,929$2,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,705.061,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Athletics54c3,703$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.621,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Athletics58c3,349$1,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,928.0610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Athletics32c3,307$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.9318248.4%88 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Athletics48c3,236$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,540.066,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Athletics55c3,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.9777951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Athletics55c2,500$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,37575049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c5d…3882backed Cleveland Guardians44c2,310$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,293.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Athletics57c2,282$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,310.278,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Cleveland Guardians45c2,178$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.1489153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Athletics18c2,118$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.331,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Cleveland Guardians42c2,018$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,170.3414938.3%57 W · 92 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed Cleveland Guardians25c1,963$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,462.9214134%48 W · 93 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Athletics55c1,791$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.316,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Athletics33c1,618$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.528,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Athletics32c1,609$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.591,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd3…fed4backed Cleveland Guardians75c1,600$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4005959.3%35 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Athletics8c1,590$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.041,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Athletics62c1,564$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.2648850.2%245 W · 243 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5aa…4464backed Athletics39c1,548$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.8328850.3%145 W · 143 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Athletics54c1,364$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.8416947.3%80 W · 89 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Athletics13c1,283$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.6733515.5%52 W · 283 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Athletics56c1,264$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.25,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Athletics62c1,226$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.414,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e4a…eee7backed Cleveland Guardians44c1,136$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.3530844.2%136 W · 172 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae51…0d08backed Athletics31c1,111$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.3236440.1%146 W · 218 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Athletics54c1,100$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5946746.3%31 W · 36 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x066e…ceb2backed Cleveland Guardians23c1,100$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84725240.1%101 W · 151 L+0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Athletics30c1,066$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.9129948.8%146 W · 153 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Athletics54c1,027$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.751,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Athletics38c1,005$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.3834952.7%184 W · 165 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Athletics55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55061947.7%295 W · 324 L-1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x497a…650fbacked Cleveland Guardians45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5509846.9%46 W · 52 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Cleveland Guardians34c962$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.1819934.2%68 W · 131 L-9.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians62c825.41$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.259,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Cleveland Guardians23c824$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.486357.1%36 W · 27 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Athletics56c799.96$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.781,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a13…db82backed Athletics54c777.69$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.954450%22 W · 22 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Cleveland Guardians44c754$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.9957744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Athletics32c744.61$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.2759549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Cleveland Guardians42c723.17$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.022,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Cleveland Guardians73c707$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.3247589.1%423 W · 52 L+84.9wins+0.18per pick71cpaid+25%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Cleveland Guardians44c656.27$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.511,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Athletics63c621$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.844,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Athletics55c600$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33085952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed2b…d4eabacked Cleveland Guardians72c558.29$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.291764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Athletics56c500$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28019248.4%93 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2849…3d49backed Athletics30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15026857.8%155 W · 113 L+26.3wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+18.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8165…59d0backed Cleveland Guardians30c498.78$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.78862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+35.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x782b…ff64backed Athletics65c456.14$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.4950860.2%306 W · 202 L+29.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Athletics56c450$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25234648.6%168 W · 178 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc521…b46abacked Cleveland Guardians32c439.36$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.67948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Athletics41c437.75$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.161,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Cleveland Guardians44c411.03$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.9750337.2%187 W · 316 L-42.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Cleveland Guardians44c400$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2241,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Athletics43c397.8$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.751,13742.6%484 W · 653 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Athletics58c392.86$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.0897050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2843…0ac5backed Cleveland Guardians52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.629656.3%54 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Athletics30c374.58$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.373,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Athletics18c369.1$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7199744.1%440 W · 557 L-38.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Athletics59c366.71$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.821,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0f0…9a41backed Athletics56c358$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.4820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Cleveland Guardians42c357.14$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.1439948.1%192 W · 207 L-1.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc26a…b715backed Athletics32c343.75$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e2d…5116backed Cleveland Guardians29c341.38$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.381540%6 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Athletics59c333.1$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.981,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Athletics59c313.84$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.292,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ce8…fc49backed Cleveland Guardians26c288.46$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.465949.2%29 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed Athletics52c282.15$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.3837143.9%163 W · 208 L-21.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4dc8…6655backed Athletics73c280.79$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.988353%44 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb9f…345cbacked Cleveland Guardians71c276.06$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.065350.9%27 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Cleveland Guardians52c270.13$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.662,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Athletics32c250$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7555847.7%266 W · 292 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.