MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5bd6fe3556af14aed8c1c754361ae7a35d4dab2a058b03221b7d56036febd02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 42c | 676.25$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.03 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 56c | 263.75$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.05 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd59a…061bbacked Yes | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.24per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9b…5cf9backed Yes | 58c | 119$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…dd47backed Yes | 58c | 117.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 57c | 105$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73c…f142backed Yes | 58c | 102.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ff…0ae4backed Yes | 58c | 102$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 51cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadd…bdddbacked Yes | 58c | 95.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb573…9b3bbacked Yes | 58c | 95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c97…82adbacked Yes | 56c | 87.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedf1…3cc3backed No | 44c | 60.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91a3…fd43backed No | 44c | 59.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa775…7218backed No | 44c | 59.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ac…a969backed No | 44c | 58.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c0…36b5backed No | 44c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde61…4d90backed No | 44c | 51.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f98…753ebacked No | 43c | 50.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab7…6db0backed No | 43c | 50.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb035…b96bbacked No | 44c | 49.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0b…c04bbacked No | 44c | 48.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5013…e234backed No | 44c | 45.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe946…de24backed No | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c51…5b32backed Yes | 58c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Yes | 56c | 20.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Athleticsthis page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. AthleticsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.