MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93740e08cefaf83b69524d837f00fa232a6c61abb74574c20b44e99e403f72a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 50c | 5,080$2,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,542.92 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 54c | 2,078$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.6 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…c861backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 149 | 38.3%57 W · 92 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 1,940$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.29 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 38c | 1,288$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.97 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 54c | 928.79$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.14 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 49c | 912.1$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.1 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce3…07b5backed Under | 58c | 861.64$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Over | 51c | 803.92$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.92 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 691.05$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.77 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 51c | 638.51$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.64 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 599.98$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 36c | 535$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.54 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…83f9backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 38c | 500$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 50c | 420$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 46c | 326.08$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 48c | 302.5$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.4 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcff0…fa1abacked Under | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 54c | 294.35$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.87 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 48c | 257.03$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.69 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 43c | 207.91$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 50c | 183.14$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.91 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 50c | 173$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 51c | 150$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 52c | 149.23$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 49c | 139.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 32c | 131.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 53c | 121.9$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Under | 52c | 120.11$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 118.45$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.89 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 58c | 111.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f70…ce77backed Under | 20c | 101.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c97…82adbacked Over | 49c | 100.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…e32bbacked Under | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +495.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe574…1b45backed Under | 50c | 99.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 49c | 94.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 39c | 85.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 41c | 60.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Over | 50c | 59.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 51c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 57.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…dcb7backed Under | 54c | 57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 64c | 52.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 47c | 44.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 29c | 40.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Under | 38c | 28.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…ba99backed Over | 50c | 25.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. AthleticsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.