MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9984222306c88de6a06947a369169d9441ac0c8b906caa6542b4cecb92ac1fba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Athletics, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Athletics | 56c | 15,000$8,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,397.15 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 19c | 9,543$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,830.16 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 9,335$4,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,226.37 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 5,301$3,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,120.42 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 3,479$1,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,948.25 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Athletics | 40c | 3,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f328backed Athletics | 40c | 2,950$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 1,400$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 1,272$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.39 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Athletics | 39c | 1,249$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.12 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 1,090$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.19 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 1,020$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.8 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed Athletics | 40c | 825$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Athletics | 18c | 641.78$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.47 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Athletics | 18c | 482.22$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.52 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 314.05$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.62 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 285.63$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.51 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Athletics | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 230.66$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.25 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Athletics | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Athletics | 53c | 186.94$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.78 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 162.83$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.57 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked Athletics | 18c | 157.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Athletics | 60c | 154$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Athletics | 40c | 135$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 125.17$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 122.95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…20b4backed Athletics | 20c | 113.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Athletics | 20c | 109.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Athletics | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Athletics | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Athletics | 39c | 88.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Athletics | 17c | 81.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda80…698fbacked Athletics | 18c | 76.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Athletics | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Athletics | 29c | 68.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Athletics | 18c | 66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf7…3412backed Athletics | 20c | 65.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Athletics | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Athletics | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Athletics | 20c | 52.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 51.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Athletics | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Athletics | 39c | 49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Athletics | 53c | 37.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 35.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 34.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 33.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Athletics | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac5e…87d1backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1818…2c75backed Athletics | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…2c8ebacked Athletics | 40c | 25.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -8.4wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -54%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 23.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae26…e478backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 22.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. AthleticsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.