Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ccb88f5a3eeddb94cf886aea7b0e1db4532ea753efec324074d3b5294facc52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $330,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $359,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $330,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 290 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0ab…b5e3backed 1win | 68c | 23,963$16,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,205.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…bc51backed 1win | 66c | 15,165$9,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,962.51 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked 1win | 59c | 14,494$8,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,514.54 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…b2e0backed Aurora | 38c | 12,773$4,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,875.3 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aurora | 34c | 11,775$4,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,736.64 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked 1win | 48c | 8,951$4,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,304.31 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora | 54c | 7,338$3,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,389.15 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed 1win | 62c | 7,058$4,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,377.44 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 43c | 6,178$2,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,523.95 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd96…e623backed 1win | 56c | 6,150$3,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,420.13 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…932fbacked Aurora | 66c | 6,095$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,095.24 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Aurora | 62c | 5,984$3,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,268.65 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked 1win | 59c | 5,889$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…f7e2backed Aurora | 47c | 5,198$2,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,749.58 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…e570backed Aurora | 64c | 5,000$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.99 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed 1win | 35c | 5,000$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,749.99 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed 1win | 41c | 4,780$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,959.63 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Aurora | 49c | 4,326$2,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,206.16 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Aurora | 62c | 3,905$2,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490.71 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked 1win | 36c | 3,851$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.36 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x988d…9899backed 1win | 36c | 3,755$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…302abacked 1win | 41c | 3,724$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.12 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…4734backed 1win | 18c | 3,677$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.48 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Aurora | 49c | 3,439$1,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,743.85 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Aurora | 59c | 3,341$1,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.63 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed 1win | 66c | 3,190$2,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120.89 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora | 36c | 2,900$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,866.98 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed Aurora | 55c | 2,828$1,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.52 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc47f…94b4backed Aurora | 43c | 2,705$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,551.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…d0afbacked Aurora | 64c | 2,485$1,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.92 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Aurora | 39c | 2,390$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,467.21 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked 1win | 33c | 2,330$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.24 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4b…f8fbbacked 1win | 35c | 2,039$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.5 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Aurora | 64c | 2,000$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.99 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked 1win | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.98 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7e…08fdbacked Aurora | 53c | 1,684$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…0536backed Aurora | 77c | 1,653$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbba…f349backed Aurora | 61c | 1,635$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked 1win | 35c | 1,600$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.99 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Aurora | 63c | 1,525$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.7 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf1…c324backed Aurora | 66c | 1,507$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.04 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed 1win | 67c | 1,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed 1win | 55c | 1,460$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -63%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…f6b4backed 1win | 31c | 1,444$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.79 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Aurora | 60c | 1,437$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.5 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Aurora | 35c | 1,353$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.24 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Aurora | 45c | 1,168$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.68 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed Aurora | 48c | 987.65$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.6 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Aurora | 46c | 981.04$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.65 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Aurora | 56c | 948.21$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.21 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…1691backed Aurora | 42c | 922.72$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.56 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…1d6dbacked 1win | 13c | 881.36$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.1 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +150%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Aurora | 44c | 862.25$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.58 | 168 | 35.7%60 W · 108 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e29…68e3backed Aurora | 60c | 852.69$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f80…8dadbacked Aurora | 60c | 845.37$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…b695backed 1win | 39c | 824.68$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe682…c1fbbacked Aurora | 60c | 817.93$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23d…f322backed Aurora | 65c | 807.25$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.54 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…9b9cbacked Aurora | 65c | 780$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed Aurora | 51c | 741.27$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.5 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Aurora | 54c | 735.61$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.61 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed 1win | 64c | 719.53$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.84 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…795fbacked Aurora | 62c | 718.19$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.91 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Aurora | 40c | 673.79$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.3 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked 1win | 61c | 621.48$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.5 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Aurora | 41c | 612.44$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.44 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed 1win | 35c | 600.14$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.93 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Aurora | 63c | 582.65$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.61 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked 1win | 49c | 579.5$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.91 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876d…cb6ebacked 1win | 16c | 562.49$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd4…ea9abacked 1win | 36c | 546.02$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.41 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…c9afbacked 1win | 37c | 543.24$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46fe…a43dbacked Aurora | 69c | 524.58$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.58 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed 1win | 49c | 522.24$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.64 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Aurora | 35c | 514.37$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.34 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…56acbacked Aurora | 38c | 511.71$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Aurora | 39c | 510$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.1 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Aurora | 39c | 508.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.97 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd932…57e0backed Aurora | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Aurora | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Aurora | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe08e…1d61backed Aurora | 64c | 499.99$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebf4…181ebacked Aurora | 62c | 488.26$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.54 | 107 | 70.1%75 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed 1win | 41c | 486.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked Aurora | 37c | 486$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.18 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6df…391abacked 1win | 30c | 477.65$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed 1win | 63c | 476.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…7e0bbacked Aurora | 61c | 472.14$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.57 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…3111backed 1win | 65c | 461.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69b0…040fbacked Aurora | 63c | 456.36$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.17 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9c…bcfcbacked Aurora | 45c | 448.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea61…cc32backed 1win | 54c | 434.78$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.78 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…218cbacked 1win | 71c | 427.09$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Aurora | 56c | 402.32$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.32 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Aurora | 65c | 400.98$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.98 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed 1win | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Aurora | 38c | 372.63$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.45 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Aurora | 57c | 361.99$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.13 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Aurora | 60c | 361.14$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.99 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…7058backed Aurora | 65c | 355.97$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.97 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 1 Winner1win won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.