Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa47baed3a0fc59d7e86a2686c8e10a434e9f18502779ff93a27da0380d153b6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof Aurora, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked 1win | 48c | 10,308$4,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,359.17 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Aurora | 55c | 9,437$5,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,188.84 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora | 49c | 5,311$2,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,596.39 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked 1win | 43c | 4,970$2,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,818 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aurora | 39c | 4,522$1,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785.44 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…302abacked Aurora | 50c | 2,451$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223.87 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked 1win | 41c | 2,315$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375.66 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked 1win | 42c | 1,792$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.28 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Aurora | 32c | 1,120$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.43 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…940abacked Aurora | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…1d6dbacked Aurora | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +150%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked 1win | 42c | 988.98$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.99 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…932fbacked Aurora | 53c | 937.3$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…089bbacked 1win | 44c | 560.02$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.99 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Aurora | 17c | 525.56$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…c9afbacked 1win | 42c | 491.29$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.95 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Aurora | 31c | 438.71$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.52 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed 1win | 57c | 395.71$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.98 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Aurora | 58c | 345.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed 1win | 41c | 307$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.22 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Aurora | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea61…cc32backed 1win | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…0329backed Aurora | 60c | 199.92$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.95 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Aurora | 55c | 182.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Aurora | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed Aurora | 9c | 155.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x891c…ef89backed Aurora | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed 1win | 70c | 130$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…532bbacked 1win | 47c | 124.55$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed 1win | 41c | 117.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Aurora | 29c | 104.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Aurora | 46c | 100.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Aurora | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e4…9026backed Aurora | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked 1win | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Aurora | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x327e…2852backed Aurora | 25c | 97.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…9c2fbacked Aurora | 67c | 85.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1228…c4fabacked Aurora | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed 1win | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796b…56fdbacked Aurora | 25c | 63.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c6…7d8cbacked Aurora | 27c | 62.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked 1win | 36c | 43.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed 1win | 47c | 42.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658f…f568backed Aurora | 62c | 37.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3)Aurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.