Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8421cd3da0217e49fcf016be43461acfa9c52f61c3232b7a665ec5fd01dddf68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb569…5695backed 1win | 44c | 8,701$3,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,792 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Aurora | 57c | 6,930$3,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,955.83 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed 1win | 51c | 6,903$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…302abacked 1win | 47c | 4,051$1,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,893.02 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Aurora | 53c | 3,807$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,807.07 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked 1win | 51c | 3,106$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580.04 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Aurora | 65c | 2,857$1,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 44c | 2,454$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.28 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Aurora | 52c | 2,446$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.57 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbba…f349backed Aurora | 59c | 2,393$1,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aurora | 52c | 2,315$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.38 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora | 55c | 2,072$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.18 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed 1win | 47c | 1,694$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.01 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…932fbacked Aurora | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.67 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Aurora | 46c | 1,580$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.05 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Aurora | 58c | 1,516$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.37 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Aurora | 61c | 1,477$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.4 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…f7e2backed Aurora | 46c | 1,085$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.23 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked 1win | 58c | 1,065$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.36 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked Aurora | 66c | 1,050$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.7 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed 1win | 45c | 1,015$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.62 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed 1win | 40c | 996.85$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.39 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked 1win | 66c | 606.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked 1win | 30c | 584.41$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.63 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Aurora | 64c | 499.99$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Aurora | 60c | 499.27$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.27 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d1…c018backed Aurora | 71c | 492.64$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.64 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Aurora | 59c | 490$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.9 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…f6b4backed 1win | 28c | 436.28$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Aurora | 68c | 360.9$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.88 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked 1win | 38c | 345.45$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.78 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed 1win | 35c | 302$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.68 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb90c…b30ebacked 1win | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -58%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed Aurora | 63c | 261.77$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.86 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Aurora | 62c | 243.55$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.55 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed 1win | 41c | 240.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…218cbacked Aurora | 68c | 226.89$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Aurora | 57c | 200.08$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.73 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed 1win | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f9…4341backed Aurora | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +116%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb11…66cbbacked Aurora | 44c | 199$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.42 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…ca77backed 1win | 42c | 178.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd92d…e560backed Aurora | 69c | 160$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Aurora | 66c | 152$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Aurora | 67c | 124.63$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed 1win | 43c | 115.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked 1win | 50c | 108.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 80 | 66.3%53 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…382cbacked 1win | 58c | 107.05$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…0329backed 1win | 34c | 104.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked 1win | 36c | 100.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd4…ea9abacked Aurora | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed 1win | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Aurora | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Aurora | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…e109backed 1win | 34c | 98.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…104ebacked 1win | 34c | 98.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…7fe5backed 1win | 28c | 89.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Aurora | 60c | 83.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x327e…2852backed 1win | 36c | 76.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…089bbacked Aurora | 47c | 59.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x891c…ef89backed Aurora | 62c | 51.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…2035backed Aurora | 67c | 50.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 332 | 65.4%217 W · 115 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x796b…56fdbacked Aurora | 61c | 50.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked Aurora | 60c | 50.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1228…c4fabacked Aurora | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5681…b253backed Aurora | 74c | 48.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked 1win | 42c | 48.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…ea96backed Aurora | 60c | 47.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…532bbacked Aurora | 47c | 46.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…fbe1backed 1win | 35c | 45.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…e757backed 1win | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…df92backed 1win | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa548…1fd5backed Aurora | 74c | 43.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…71e3backed Aurora | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c6…7d8cbacked 1win | 46c | 38.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd47f…41f9backed Aurora | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed Aurora | 62c | 19.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…c40ebacked Aurora | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3)Aurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 1 Winner1win won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.