Mls · resolved market
Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfe3d80d9870d7f38f16eff30eeb58b4b2399b4f16e106a619cce3d121eda1a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 54c | 3,256$1,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,503.08 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 54c | 3,092$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,670.37 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…033ebacked Over | 15c | 1,830$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549.84 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 44c | 1,745$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.97 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 79c | 1,146$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.46 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeda…8e35backed Under | 52c | 471.7$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 399.38$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.84 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 14c | 330.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 19c | 325$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 72c | 241.89$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.74 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…984abacked Under | 26c | 230.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 24c | 219.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Under | 26c | 211.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 71c | 200.33$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.39 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb763…cce5backed Over | 52c | 200$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 18c | 137.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 48c | 130$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 44c | 112$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.78 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…19ebbacked Over | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.21per pick | 31cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 18c | 85.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…21f7backed Over | 39c | 83.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Over | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 26c | 71.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d23…53d3backed Over | 15c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 77c | 65.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 34c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Over | 64c | 53.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 140 | 62.1%87 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6b…172abacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 35.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 58c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6163backed Over | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 24.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec7…93d1backed Under | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC: Minnesota United FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC: Real Salt Lake O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC: Real Salt Lake O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)Minnesota United FC won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)Minnesota United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.