Mls · resolved market
Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb825fcf5a39df1900fb910fbcb94923a52fa3633e66e581123851fd7ca82184e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 33c | 7,742$2,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,548.69 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 74c | 6,206$4,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.49 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbe…1f4ebacked Under | 41c | 4,479$1,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,642.69 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 17c | 3,182$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.48 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 40c | 1,765$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.24 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 60c | 1,673$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.92 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 75c | 1,344$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.84 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Over | 57c | 1,088$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…7b9bbacked Over | 59c | 930.81$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 42c | 830.06$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.41 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8224…7384backed Over | 27c | 525.93$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Under | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 23c | 446.14$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…8abcbacked Over | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 59c | 423$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.57 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb026…9c7bbacked Under | 46c | 400$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.95 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.25per pick | 34cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 59c | 301.86$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.1 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Over | 12c | 254.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced4…5055backed Over | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 41c | 161$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.99 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Under | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 16c | 133$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 41c | 107.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.48 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 59c | 100.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.53 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…19ebbacked Over | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.21per pick | 31cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 59c | 96.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 59c | 95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 59c | 91.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 60c | 83.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 60c | 83.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…5cc9backed Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9c…601abacked Over | 46c | 73.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 60c | 66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8b…37e0backed Over | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 59c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 47c | 41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e8…5e6bbacked Over | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 34.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…9426backed Over | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf28b…60c6backed Under | 73c | 20.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC: Minnesota United FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC: Real Salt Lake O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC: Real Salt Lake O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)Minnesota United FC won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)Minnesota United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.