Ligue 1 · resolved market
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7e595d15e85f085e26a8ac9cfe9a66c7fd60359242f50941998f8d256fe14c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 4,283$2,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,141.8 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 44c | 1,973$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.85 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 551.23$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.84 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 55c | 530.73$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.83 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 77c | 383.81$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.67 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 68c | 250$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 70c | 205.6$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 47c | 197.31$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.19 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 73c | 195.99$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 47c | 192.86$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.56 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 47c | 192.86$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.56 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 47c | 192.85$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.87 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 47c | 192.85$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.87 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 47c | 192.85$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.87 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked Over | 55c | 143.38$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 67c | 101.28$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cc…1958backed Over | 55c | 96.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 11c | 92.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 65c | 75.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 43c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…a295backed Under | 74c | 66.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 35c | 63.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Over | 18c | 63.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked Under | 62c | 59.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 53c | 53.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 188 | 47.9%90 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 55c | 49.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 39c | 46.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Under | 47c | 46.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Under | 80c | 30.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Under | 52c | 28.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 36c | 27.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5this page
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5Over won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5Over won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-2.5)OGC Nice won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.