Ligue 1 · resolved market
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79268772afb9c24edd66d76922eda61cda5f6e733e6f9121762347e995bd24ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Over | 54c | 1,050$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…699bbacked Under | 44c | 999.98$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 58c | 843.3$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.96 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 689.11$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.72 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 643.12$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.43 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Under | 44c | 572.99$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.11 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 42c | 375$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 43c | 336.91$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 302.5$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.66 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 33c | 256.34$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.83 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Under | 42c | 242.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.06 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373b…1107backed Over | 56c | 194.72$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 41c | 170.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.79 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 60c | 148.43$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…1bdfbacked Under | 42c | 140.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Under | 42c | 139.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 56c | 135.85$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 43c | 134.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 133.23$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Under | 58c | 126.05$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 121.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.11 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 34c | 104.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 49c | 101.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 56c | 97.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed Over | 56c | 97.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 45cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 56c | 97.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 56c | 97.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 123 | 67.5%83 W · 40 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Over | 56c | 97.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 56c | 97.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4869…3f70backed Under | 45c | 96.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 45c | 96.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 60c | 96.69$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 52c | 93.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 52c | 72.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Over | 53c | 61.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 42c | 61.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Over | 43c | 55.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Over | 66c | 52.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 67c | 51.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Over | 67c | 51.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 56c | 48.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 56c | 43.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 56c | 39.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 142 | 47.9%68 W · 74 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…98bcbacked Over | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Under | 43c | 33.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…1a00backed Under | 48c | 25.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 51c | 24.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5e…5cdbbacked Over | 57c | 24.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…c734backed Over | 66c | 20.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Over | 56c | 19.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5this page
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5Over won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5Over won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-2.5)OGC Nice won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.