Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-05-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3efe9ae1d84b0833b3a9e21d11b83e772c0e9d8af490420934d5a08b919ba35f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d2…d196backed No | 57c | 22,870$12,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,977.34 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 44c | 6,010$2,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,395.19 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 43c | 4,272$1,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,444.3 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 43c | 3,838$1,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,178.29 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 42c | 3,799$1,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,212.43 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed Yes | 41c | 3,407$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,007.44 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 58c | 2,176$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.99 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes | 43c | 2,167$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.84 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 43c | 1,805$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.84 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 43c | 1,516$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.84 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Yes | 45c | 1,059$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.2 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e1…62a2backed Yes | 42c | 1,020$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.84 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Yes | 43c | 932.23$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.37 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 44c | 900$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.5 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 43c | 796.76$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.55 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked Yes | 41c | 738.26$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.97 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 55c | 730.24$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.21 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 44c | 683.98$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.03 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 42c | 630.68$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.25 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 79c | 602.14$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.88 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 45c | 554$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.7 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Yes | 43c | 525.02$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.26 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 44c | 331.5$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.3 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 48c | 320.9$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.32 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Yes | 42c | 318.06$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.47 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Yes | 43c | 271.25$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.04 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 56c | 267.44$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.08 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 47c | 232.62$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…7f6cbacked Yes | 43c | 228.21$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.74 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 43c | 223$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.15 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…cfdebacked Yes | 43c | 203.23$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.84 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 43c | 202$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.14 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…8be6backed Yes | 40c | 164.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 56c | 151$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.06 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Yes | 43c | 145.93$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.18 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 55c | 121.05$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Yes | 43c | 118.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10fd…633bbacked Yes | 45c | 116.59$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 50c | 100.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2d…d35bbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 41c | 68.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Yes | 50c | 65.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Yes | 42c | 64.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Yes | 44c | 61.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…befdbacked Yes | 53c | 55.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 45c | 55.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 56c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 50c | 51.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 50c | 48.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 55c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 56c | 37.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6411…1223backed Yes | 73c | 36.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…daa0backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 60c | 31.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc407…0875backed Yes | 40c | 30.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Yes | 70c | 28.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…7c12backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +201.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Yes | 54c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…8a96backed Yes | 53c | 24.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Yes | 42c | 24.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Yes | 72c | 24.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418e…3740backed Yes | 75c | 14.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-05-09?this page
- Will Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw?No won
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-05-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.