Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-05-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab480f22730bf813ec1604cda71b89547e2b7a04ac7068f52bbea864b78b4b60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Yes | 4c | 5,507$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 25c | 4,907$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.56 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 2,190$1,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.49 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked No | 71c | 1,617$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.63 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed No | 72c | 1,596$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.01 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…7d17backed No | 69c | 1,543$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 71c | 1,439$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.65 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…c53cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Yes | 31c | 1,059$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.15 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1856backed No | 71c | 845.07$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3c…5e0abacked No | 71c | 804.77$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…39b8backed No | 79c | 726.84$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e1…62a2backed No | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked No | 72c | 548.35$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.54 | 52 | 76.9%40 W · 12 L | +13.0wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +72%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed No | 71c | 422.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.54 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes | 31c | 399.29$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.7 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed No | 69c | 362.32$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…1bd7backed Yes | 4c | 350.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 71c | 348.69$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.41 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 32c | 331.48$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.05 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…73e0backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…7f6cbacked No | 69c | 282.55$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.56 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 78c | 222.95$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed No | 69c | 99.06$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Yes | 14c | 96.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 32c | 86.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3db…97a6backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…fc3fbacked Yes | 29c | 54.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 68c | 50.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…f2b7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 75c | 48.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 72c | 46.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 71c | 44.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 71c | 43.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed No | 77c | 42.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Yes | 30c | 38.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 77c | 37.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed No | 70c | 34.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked No | 69c | 28.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 71c | 27.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 68c | 21.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-05-09?this page
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-05-09?Yes won
- Will Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.