Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4241da0968b7afc50c25b672fb1db0ab8e759e8c7170f687f6647ea455f95214
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 76c | 12,534$9,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,993.58 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes | 24c | 5,697$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.91 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 26c | 5,267$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.06 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 3,334$2,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.3 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 31c | 2,533$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.13 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Yes | 10c | 2,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 24c | 1,933$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.92 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 11c | 827.27$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 24c | 547.74$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.46 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 23c | 388.37$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.33 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Yes | 28c | 381.29$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 23c | 349.2$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.32 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed No | 75c | 338.17$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 23c | 306.54$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.83 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 73c | 242.36$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.44 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 79c | 212.94$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Yes | 11c | 154.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked No | 74c | 111.38$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 77c | 60.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 50.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 71c | 46.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…d420backed No | 71c | 45.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 76c | 45.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 72c | 25.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9603…de5ebacked No | 72c | 23.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed No | 71c | 20.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked No | 77c | 16.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-05-09?Yes won
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-05-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.