TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$71,510
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$79,101

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,510 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Over66c9,599$6,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,306.233,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3234…8b1abacked Under32c9,096$2,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,211.271353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under24c6,969$1,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,311.974318.6%8 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Under41c5,604$2,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,288.874337.2%16 W · 27 L-5.6wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-27.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Under42c3,571$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,071.434351.2%22 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d0…8814backed Over68c2,321$1,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,569.181855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under42c1,771$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.0928345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Over67c1,529$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.8544655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under48c1,500$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78015742%66 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over53c1,233$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6504447.7%21 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over62c1,218$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.62,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2f3…1732backed Over41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked Under34c999.99$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.99475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.44per pick31cpaid+183.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under44c794.94$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.11,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e52…00f5backed Under47c788.93$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.136844.1%30 W · 38 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+46%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x29a6…6ea4backed Over77c649.35$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003964.1%25 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f4adbacked Under49c636.79$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.794100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+66.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Under38c593$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.0311252.7%59 W · 53 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd814…09d0backed Under67c573.48$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Over53c533.94$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.771827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Under43c520.93$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.939856.1%55 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Under45c510$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe398…4ce5backed Under67c455.42$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.292766.7%18 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Over50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe941…a496backed Over64c343.7$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.477365.8%48 W · 25 L+8.5wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+16.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x399f…e8d8backed Under34c294.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.12742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd16…5cf0backed Under36c277.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.781526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+32.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x25c5…0031backed Under37c270.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.411942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under40c261.58$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.753140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0115…ac79backed Under37c208.89$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.89650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e07…0e51backed Over48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Over79c191.48$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.621338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Under32c179.14$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.8833737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Over32c170$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.41421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-36%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Over32c156.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012538.4%48 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over67c152.73$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7839558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xee5b…dac8backed Over44c149.66$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.111747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Over34c147.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506428.1%18 W · 46 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over78c144.81$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9526445.5%120 W · 144 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…8fc6backed Under44c138.73$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.69757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under50c136.37$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.5564043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…e0c1backed Under46c130.43$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.43742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Under67c103.83$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2762452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa529…677ebacked Under34c102.94$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.941770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+54.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Over32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3211338.9%44 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Over57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6717456.9%99 W · 75 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f57…3339backed Under42c99.67$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9897…c033backed Under57c99.53$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.56666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff2a…bfefbacked Under31c97.74$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.742152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4178…defabacked Under41c97.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.563100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+93.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa68f…7152backed Over77c95.53$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.56650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7112…bb83backed Under71c90$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+2,718.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc51a…7ad9backed Over62c89.51$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe471…34c0backed Under35c85.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.71650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Over70c85.71$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6019943.2%86 W · 113 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over34c80.74$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3315244.1%67 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5bb…6960backed Over57c80$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a6…aed7backed Under42c76.94$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.641681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+26.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4676…1639backed Under47c74.47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.474134.1%14 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-24.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x55b5…1ec0backed Under43c73.3$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under43c71.33$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.471662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd53c…5194backed Over25c70$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.72626.9%7 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-40.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7203…795abacked Over67c66.26$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.496564.6%42 W · 23 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over31c65.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3469851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeac8…7d97backed Under31c64.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.522100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+134%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over53c62.72$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1814755.8%82 W · 65 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa497…7891backed Over64c61.72$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.272450%12 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x195d…2decbacked Over33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9de1…f272backed Under69c57.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.973259.4%19 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9df2…99f5backed Over46c54.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.993342.4%14 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over67c53.7$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9816056.9%91 W · 69 L+13.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x133b…5856backed Over59c51.95$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.844557.8%26 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under58c51.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5218554.1%100 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82a5…674ebacked Over59c51.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.36046.7%28 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Over32c50.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.362532%8 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over68c50.39$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.31656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Under31c48.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6710956%61 W · 48 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Over64c46.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7311159.5%66 W · 45 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x23e2…9ecdbacked Under43c46.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.511947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c66…5ab3backed Over33c45.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+43.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over61c44.22$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.178451.2%43 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe626…92b5backed Under57c43.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.863275%24 W · 8 L+8.1wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+51.9%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Under48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.675952.5%31 W · 28 L-7.4wins-0.13per pick65cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2e27…9967backed Over67c39.94$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.762152.4%11 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick67cpaid-23.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ac7…c99abacked Under35c38.29$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.891172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+50.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Over62c35.66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.116752.2%35 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f51…43debacked Under43c34.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.882100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+214.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x89d4…dcfcbacked Over59c34.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa639…f5e8backed Over61c32.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014758.5%86 W · 61 L+15.9wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+30.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0079…af11backed Under44c31.56$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+125.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xade7…9d34backed Over47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.13366.7%22 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a81…a86bbacked Over67c29.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208366.3%55 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc252…0aebbacked Over75c29.33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over70c26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.22951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f67…5587backed Over80c23.13$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under55c22.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.233070%21 W · 9 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+20.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2cc5…4a43backed Over54c22.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x491c…b765backed Under68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.45464.8%35 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Over55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119243.5%40 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05b7…c24abacked Under66c19.74$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.713141.9%13 W · 18 L-5.2wins-0.17per pick59cpaid-33.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.