Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3a4683923d69e5e5dc97475d8ffc3c3fee99cacbd8a8fdd36aab9916337c066
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VfB Stuttgartof VfB Stuttgart, Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed VfB Stuttgart | 28c | 3,957$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,829.04 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 61c | 2,300$1,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 76c | 999.74$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.8 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…6ea4backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed VfB Stuttgart | 20c | 200$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed VfB Stuttgart | 19c | 200$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x403a…3173backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 78c | 118.76$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed VfB Stuttgart | 36c | 103.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.43 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1993…17c3backed VfB Stuttgart | 16c | 74.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…e03fbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 75c | 73.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 21c | 67.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed VfB Stuttgart | 36c | 60.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe570…b4fabacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7210…521fbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…5694backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…0905backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 28c | 43.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked VfB Stuttgart | 68c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 32c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 74c | 34.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed VfB Stuttgart | 45c | 32.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed VfB Stuttgart | 79c | 31.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed VfB Stuttgart | 38c | 27.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed VfB Stuttgart | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.