Bundesliga · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b3785ad7e9727e55cbcafb9345d64b923bfa16cccfc654db31167c1fe275416
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9544…790dbacked No | 30c | 1,094$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.2 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 26c | 997.79$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.43 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Yes | 70c | 989.71$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 15c | 964.13$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.27 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…6ea4backed Yes | 72c | 694.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.44 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 22c | 679.69$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.82 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 27c | 671.3$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.25 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57bb…9302backed Yes | 74c | 535.19$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.15 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Yes | 74c | 472.97$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.97 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 28c | 445$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.6 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…f949backed Yes | 73c | 383.56$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.56 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 26c | 307.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.91 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 27c | 265.75$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 27c | 175.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 6c | 171.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…1910backed Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…cfb1backed Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…3a20backed Yes | 73c | 111.09$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 26c | 107.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked No | 27c | 106.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…12e2backed Yes | 70c | 104.29$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 26c | 102.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b68…0060backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ac…4025backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Yes | 71c | 90.61$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Yes | 73c | 89.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 72c | 87.48$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38bb…2fcfbacked Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 74c | 59.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed No | 27c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Yes | 74c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 28c | 45.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc252…0aebbacked Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…f166backed Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…9e30backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Yes | 71c | 27.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 72c | 26.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ba…2404backed Yes | 74c | 25.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…1375backed Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6209…7933backed Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…9fbcbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b94…c347backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.