Bundesliga · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x150d0ecf3742b4dda1e50afb822ffb4596f71d01b1afc28d0c3a087b6bcf54d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 8c | 8,619$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Over | 74c | 1,316$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.05 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 26c | 1,100$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.99 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 6c | 787.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 28c | 432.23$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.02 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 26c | 360$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 27c | 237.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.01 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 28c | 188.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Over | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Over | 71c | 120.42$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 28c | 104.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 26c | 101$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…c865backed Under | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8684…bfaabacked Under | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 72c | 30.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 71c | 22.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x819b…6a57backed Over | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 72c | 17.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Over | 72c | 17.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 73c | 17.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 73c | 17.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 73c | 17.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.